Shanghai aluminum is under pressure to decline, and the upward trend is suspended

Externally: Asia Lun aluminum fell for the fourth consecutive day, of which 3-month Lun aluminum fell 0.
49% to 1726 US dollars / ton, down 1.
65% from the intraday high of 1755 US dollars / ton, the current aluminum price has accumulated a pullback of 3.
9% compared with this round of rising high of 1794.
5 US dollars / ton, short-term volatility is weaker than other base metals, and the operating range is concerned about 1700-1800 US dollars / ton
.

Macro: The Asian dollar index oscillated slightly, but generally maintained the large increase recorded overnight, now trading around 99.
7, as the market expects that Trump's appointment will increase the stimulus to the US economy, thereby enhancing the attractiveness
of the dollar index.
Aluminum industry information, as of November 14, SMM statistics domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, Shanghai 88,000 tons, Wuxi 73,000 tons, Hangzhou 12,000 tons, South China Sea 62,000 tons, Gongyi 48,000 tons, a total of 283,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons
from last Thursday.

In terms of market: on November 15, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 15100-15120 yuan / ton, the discount of 30 to 100 yuan / ton for the month, Wuxi transaction concentration 15070-15110 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration 15150-15170 yuan / ton
。 On the last trading day, the price difference of the following month is still more than 400 yuan / ton, Wuxi Hangzhou holders have reached a peak of cash exchange, Shanghai circulation is relatively small, before the close, aluminum fell rapidly in the month, the spot market fell down, resulting in spot prices still rising to the month, the market is worried that the spot price is difficult to maintain a high level after the month change, middlemen and downstream enterprises are strong wait-and-see sentiment, the overall transaction is suppressed, and the transaction will pick up
after tomorrow's month.

During the day, the Shanghai aluminum 1701 contract fell under pressure to 13,800 yuan / ton, as a number of domestic futures varieties reached the limit in the afternoon, and the bulls who made a lot of profits in the early stage actively reduced their positions and left the market
.
As far as aluminum is concerned, primary aluminum production in October rose year-on-year, increasing the supply pressure
of the domestic aluminum market.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the short-term Shanghai-aluminum 1701 contract is mainly range-based, with an operation range of 13600-14000 yuan / ton, and a stop loss of 120 yuan / ton
each.