Shanghai aluminum low opening shock consumption expectations support is still strong

Market focus: (1) On Tuesday, the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate stood at 2.
4%, the first level
seen since April 2013.
Meanwhile, U.
S.
Treasury yields rose across the board, with the benchmark 10-year yield climbing as much as 6 basis points to 1.
63%.

(2) As the U.
S.
economy recovers strongly from the coronavirus pandemic, the Fed is on track to begin cutting asset purchases of up to $120 billion a month by the end of the year
, according to economists surveyed.

Spot analysis: On April 28, spot A00 aluminum reported 18380-18420 yuan / ton, the average price was 18400 yuan / ton, down 130 yuan / ton
per day.
The circulation supply is abundant, the holders actively ship, the downstream on-demand procurement, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is general, and the overall transaction performance is good
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 143832 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 3,050 tons, down for 8 consecutive days; On April 27, LME stocks were 1787525 tons, down 5,575 tons per day, down for 13 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2106 contract were 175120 lots, minus 5674 lots per day, short positions were 186889 lots, daily minus 6296 lots, net short positions were 11769 lots, daily minus 622 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space was reduced
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2106 low opening shock on April 28
.
The US dollar index has recovered due to the recent rise in US inflation and US bond yields.
However, the world's major economies are expected to maintain their recovery momentum, and the economic outlook remains positive
.
At present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum plant is basically in a state of full production, the growth space of the operating rate is limited, and under the domestic carbon neutrality goal, as a high-energy-consuming industry, the production capacity and output of electrolytic aluminum will be limited
.
Recently, domestic aluminum ingot inventories have turned into a downward trend, and the traditional consumption season has gradually emerged, which has strong support for aluminum prices
.
Technically, the mainstream short position reduction of the main 2106 contract of Shanghai aluminum is large, focusing on the support of the 10-day moving average, and it is expected that the market volatility will be strong
.