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On Thursday, the main 2103 contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated and fell, with the highest 14910 yuan / ton and the lowest 14740 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 14815 yuan / ton, down 0.
47% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME aluminum continued to decline, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1978.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
45%
per day.
Market focus: (1) The Fed announced the resolution of the January interest rate meeting, maintaining the federal funds rate range of 0-0.
25% and the size of the asset purchase program of $120 billion per month, which is fully in line with
market expectations.
(2) At 21:30 Beijing time, the annualized real GDP of the United States in the fourth quarter will be released, and the market is expected to fall to 4.
2%, and the third quarter data is 33.
4%.
(3) In 2020, China's aluminum output accumulated 57.
793 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.
6%.
Spot analysis: On January 28, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14850-14890 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14870 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton
per day.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the holders have shipped goods, the demand has not improved significantly, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is general, and the transaction situation is not ideal
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 80,445 tons on Thursday, a daily increase of 3,731 tons; On January 27, LME aluminum stocks were 1428225 tons, an increase of 8,450 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2103 contract were 97070 lots, minus 3471 lots per day, short positions were 108958 lots, daily minus 5875 lots, net short positions were 11888 lots, daily minus 2404 lots, long and short increased, and net space decreased
.
Market research and judgment: On January 28, Shanghai aluminum 2103 fluctuated and fell
.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged while keeping the scale of monthly bond purchases unchanged, in line with market expectations; However, the US dollar index recovered sharply as the new US epidemic relief plan faced resistance and the global epidemic continued to spread, market risk sentiment was fragile
.
At the end of the year, downstream demand turned weak, and spot premiums weakened, making aluminum prices lack upward momentum
.
However, the recent closure of the import arbitrage window has inhibited the inflow of overseas goods, and the market transaction has improved slightly due to the decline in aluminum prices, and the recent decline in Shanghai aluminum inventories has stabilized from the low
.
Technically, the main 2103 contract daily MACD green column contraction, pay attention to the 20-day moving average pressure, and expect short-term low volatility
.
