Shanghai aluminum main force high pullback market trading performance is average

Market focus: (1) The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose 2.
5 basis points to 1.
601% on Monday, rising for the second consecutive session
.
(2) The BlackRock Investment Institute believes that the threshold for the Fed to change its policy stance is high and believes that the market may be underestimating this
.
The Fed has been slow to raise rates, and it will take almost 5 years for the policy rate to reach 1%, or by the end of
2026.

Spot analysis: On May 11, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 19800-19840 yuan / ton, with an average price of 19820 yuan / ton, down 210 yuan / ton
daily.
The source of circulating goods is tightened, the holders are willing to sell at high prices, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is general, and the trading performance is average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 159483 tons on Tuesday, an increase of 828 tons per day; On May 10, LME stocks were 1789725 tons, down 7,375 tons per day, down for six consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2106 contract 131499 lots, a daily decrease of 11454 lots, a short position of 152968 lots, a daily decrease of 18025 lots, a net short position of 21469 lots, a daily decrease of 6571 lots, both long and short reduction, and a reduction
in net space.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2106 high pullback
on May 11.
At present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum plant is basically in full production, and the growth space of the operating rate is limited
.
Although the impact of dual control of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia gradually decreased in April, under the domestic carbon neutrality goal, as a high-energy-consuming industry, electrolytic aluminum production capacity and output will still be limited
for a long time.
Recently, domestic aluminum ingot inventory has entered a downward trend, the consumption season has gradually emerged, and domestic aluminum rod inventory has also continued to be destocked, which has strong support for aluminum prices
.
Technically, the main 2106 contract of Shanghai aluminum 2106 contract volume reduction high pullback, pay attention to the 5-day moving average support, and it is expected that the market will continue to rise
in the future.