Shanghai aluminum main shock adjustment short-term shock is weak

Market focus: At the invitation of the US side, Liu He will lead a delegation to visit Washington to hold a new round of high-level Sino-US economic and trade consultations
from 10 to 11.
UAE global aluminium company EGA recently said that its Al Taweelah smelter has produced 600,000 tons of alumina since it was commissioned in April, and the plant expects to produce more than 1 million tons
of alumina by the end of the year.

Spot analysis: On October 8, the spot A00 aluminum quotation was 14030-14070 / ton, the average price was 14050 yuan / ton, and the daily increase was 70 yuan / ton
.
On the first spot trading day after the National Day, there are not many spot in the hands of the holders in the morning, the market supply is tight, the middleman has a strong willingness to receive the goods, the holder is more expensive, the buyer and seller are able to trade, and the source of goods turns loose after 11:00, but at this time the transaction heat becomes weaker, and the price of the holder is slightly reduced
.
Downstream manufacturers can replenish stocks after the holiday, but there is still a certain gap
compared with the expected large number of purchases.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 98,826 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 2,543 tons, down 11 consecutive days; On October 7, LME aluminum stocks were 964225 tons, down 2,300 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 1912 contract are 67285 lots, with a daily increase of 1705 lots, short positions of 86302 lots, a daily increase of 1860 lots, net short positions of 19017 lots, a daily increase of 155 lots, long and short increases, and net space increases
.

On October 8, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 1912 shock adjustment
.
The US ISM manufacturing PMI hit a ten-year low in September, the euro area economic data was also weak, market risk sentiment was suppressed, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity was expected to be released at the end of the year, coupled with poor downstream demand, electrolytic aluminum inventories rebounded slightly, aluminum prices performed weakly, but the current electrolytic aluminum production is still at a low level, and a new round of Sino-US trade negotiations is approaching, aluminum prices form some support
.
In terms of spot, there are not many spot holders in the morning, middlemen have a strong willingness to receive goods, the source of goods turns loose after 11:00, the quotation of holders is slightly reduced, and downstream manufacturers can replenish goods after the holiday
.
Technically, the trading volume of the main 1912 contract of Shanghai aluminum has dropped sharply, under pressure on the 10-day moving average, and the short-term shock is expected to be weak
.