Shanghai aluminum maintained a high volatility market in the short term

This week, LME March aluminum retreated
after hitting a new high.
At the beginning of the week, it opened at $1885.
5 and closed higher, and on Tuesday evening as the market once again rumored that environmental protection production was limited, the price immediately rose overnight, and on Wednesday, with the official media releasing environmental protection implementation policy news, while the US president spoke to promote the infrastructure plan, Lun aluminum rose to a high of $1957, and then fell sharply to $1904 on Thursday against the background of the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, and rebounded to $1920 before the Asian market closed on Friday
.
By the time of writing, it closed at $1920, up $35 for the week, or 1.
86%
for the week.

On the macro side, if the environmental protection production restriction plan is strictly implemented, it will be beneficial to the electrolytic aluminum industry chain, affected by this, and the spot aluminum price trend this week is generally strong
.
The metals market maintained a cautious wait-and-see attitude
as the opening of China's two sessions or the disclosure of blockbuster news such as economic targets for the year.
Domestic supply-side reform and environmental protection expectations are still in place, but inventory recovery and supply pressure are huge; Fortunately, the operating efficiency of the aluminum industry has improved significantly, consumption is better than expected, and it is expected that aluminum prices are expected to continue to rise
next week.

In the market, the discount was narrowed due to a plunge in futures this week
.
Holders still maintained positive shipments this week, and the market was more active overall, but the transaction was general, especially when the aluminum price fell sharply, which did not stimulate downstream procurement enthusiasm, and the lack of demand also made traders trade generally, and more followed the futures to adjust the quotation.

In the first half of the week, aluminum spot prices remained low, coupled with the gradual start of downstream construction, downstream has resumed procurement, the second half of the week with the price increase, while domestic inventories continue to maintain a high level, so that downstream and traders are bearish on the future market, transactions began to become lighter, downstream is only on-demand procurement
.
It is expected that the spot price will return to about
13800 yuan / ton at the beginning of next week.

As of yesterday, the inventory of the five places of the aluminum market reached more than 1.
0325 million tons, and the market inventory pressure has been present, and then this week's relevant environmental protection production limit draft content is implemented, but from the content point of view, the production limit period involves October later, the recent aluminum market is still under pressure on the supply side
.
At the same time, the frequent hawkish comments of Fed officials have made the probability of a rate hike in March soared, and the aluminum market has been under great pressure in the near future
.
At present, the market is waiting for the guidance of the two sessions, and the Shanghai aluminum market is weak and volatile, and it is expected that the aluminum market will be under pressure at 14,300 yuan in the short term, continuing to fluctuate
at a high level.