Shanghai aluminum narrow range oscillation short-term or strong operation

In terms of industries, Fitch said that the downward revision of its aluminum price forecast was mainly due to the reduction of the estimated market supply gap and the decline
in the growth rate of aluminum demand outside China.
Fitch said it expects Chinese producers of semi-finished and finished aluminum to increase exports to maintain production and reduce the global supply gap
.
The rating agency expects aluminum prices at $2,000/mt, compared with $
2,150.

In terms of the market, the first trading stage of aluminum futures before the afternoon of the month was mainly range-bound, and the second trading stage was down
.
The transaction price in Shanghai is between 13870-13880 yuan / ton, and the premium of the month is around 280-300 yuan / ton, the transaction price is nearly 70 yuan / ton lower than the previous day, the transaction price in Wuxi is between 13870-13880 yuan / ton, and the transaction price in Hangzhou is between
13880-13900 yuan / ton.
Because a large account did not receive goods in East China within a day, the market supply was sufficient, and traders mostly shipped, but the receivers took into account the narrow arbitrage space of the monthly difference and took a wait-and-see attitude towards the price and did not receive many
goods.
In addition, the demand for ticket goods in the market next month will increase compared with the previous period, and the quotation is around
13610-13620 yuan / ton.
Due to the decline in prices compared with the previous day, the willingness of downstream procurement within the day has increased
significantly.
On the whole, the transaction in East China is relatively average
.

In terms of inventories, LME aluminum stocks were 1,149,725 tons on March 26, down 5,725 tons from the previous session; As of March 22, 2019, electrolytic aluminum stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 741,757 tons, an increase of 2,699 tons
from the previous week.
From a seasonal perspective, current inventories remain at a high level
compared to the past five years.

Shanghai aluminum narrow range volatility during the day, in the spot market, the supply is sufficient, traders are mostly shipments, but the receiver takes into account the narrow space of monthly difference arbitrage and takes a wait-and-see attitude towards the price and receives not much
.
In addition, the demand for ticket goods in the market next month increased compared with the previous period, and the willingness to purchase downstream within the day increased significantly due to the decline in prices compared with the previous day
.
On the technical side, from the 60-minute line, the Shanghai aluminum 1905 contract constitutes a stage bottom, the MACD indicator forms a golden cross upwards at a low level, and the short-term Shanghai aluminum or shock is strong
.