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Most non-ferrous metals were floating green on Wednesday, and at the end of the day, Shanghai aluminum fell 1.
2% and Shanghai lead rose 0.
57%.
The dollar has pointed to volatility at high levels, and for now, market participants will look for clues in the minutes of the June meeting released on Wednesday to know when the Fed will begin to scale back its massive bond purchases to fight the pandemic as the economy recovers
.
The dollar rose as traders spread their positions ahead of the release of the minutes of the Fed's June meeting, re-exerting pressure on non-ferrous metals
.
On the macro front, the US economy has recovered somewhat, and its main data has been good, such as the manufacturing PMI continued to reach new highs, which has inspired hawkish comments from some Fed officials, and the dollar is now recovering to around
92.
The strength of the dollar index will weigh on aluminum prices, but it is worth noting that the July US non-farm payrolls data was better than expected, but the unemployment rate was lower than expected, indicating that it will take time for the US labor market to recover, so the Fed may not accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes again, and the short-term dollar index is less likely to strengthen again
.
In terms of social stocks, as of July 5, SMM's social stocks of electrolytic aluminum in five places were 863,000 tons, down 13,000 tons from last week, and the inventory in the same period last year was 712,000 tons
.
Although the country's first aluminum ingot storage has landed, the social inventory is still declining, and the inventory is at a low level, which also reflects the current good situation of aluminum supply and demand
.
Since the sharp rise in aluminum prices at the beginning of this week, after standing at a high level of 10,000 nine again, market divergence has intensified, wait-and-see sentiment has gradually aggravated, and aluminum prices have once again opened shock mode
yesterday.
The fundamentals have not changed much overall, some refineries with limited pre-production in Yunnan on the supply side are ready to resume production, and the downstream demand margin in the off-season on the consumption side weakens
.
In terms of price, because the supply and demand ends of aluminum will still benefit from the impact of the concept of "carbon neutrality" for a long time in the future, it is still recommended to treat it with a long idea in the cross-variety arbitrage strategy, because the recent macro uncertainty is still high, and the non-ferrous sector as a whole is affected by the macro, and the short-term is still recommended to wait and see
.
![disodium 4,4'-bis[[4-anilino-6-[(2-carbamoylethyl)(2-hydroxyethyl)amino]-1,3,5,-triazin-2-yl]amino]stilbene-2,2'-disulphonate CAS NO 27344-06-5](https://file.echemi.com/fileManage/upload/cas/77/e1abc71f-648d-403c-93fe-69b5c9401d56.gif)
