Shanghai aluminum opened flat and went high, still continuing to range volatility

In terms of the market, the spot price of Yangtze River Nonferrous A00 aluminum ingots fell by 70 yuan / ton month-on-month, the spot price of Nantong A00 aluminum ingots fell by 50 yuan / ton month-on-month, and the average premium of A00 aluminum ingot spot was 20 yuan / ton
.

In the upstream, the second phase of Gansu Zhongrui was put into operation during the week, and Inner Mongolia, Guangxi and Sichuan were put into operation one after another, and the domestic supply side maintained a steady upward state
.

In terms of downstream, according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in November 2022 was about 455,600 tons, a decrease of 4.
94% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 10.
55%.

From January to November 2022, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 6.
132 million tons, an increase of 21.
3%
over the period from January to November last year.

From the plate point of view, the capital is showing a slight outflow, the main short positions are more reduced, the current domestic supply side is disturbed by Yunnan and Henan production restrictions, coupled with the time required for Sichuan to resume production, the overall state is tight
.
Production capacity in Europe has been significantly reduced
by the energy crisis.

On the demand side, the operating conditions of downstream processing enterprises decreased
slightly month-on-month.
In terms of inventory, domestic inventories continued to decline due to the impact of the epidemic and tight spots, and aluminum inventories continued to decline
.

At present, due to the weak supply and demand affected by the national epidemic, macro news and the impact of the US index, it is recommended to test the short with a small number of highs, and the range shock will continue in the medium and long term
.
It is necessary to pay attention to the further development of power cuts, the epidemic and geopolitics, with the pressure level above the main contract at 20,000 and the support level below at 17,000.