Shanghai aluminum opened low overnight, and the market risk appetite rose significantly

On the macro front, exports fell sharply for the second consecutive month in November, and China's exports (denominated in US dollars) fell sharply by 8.
4 percentage points year-on-year to -8.
7% in November, lower than market expectations; Ten articles for epidemic prevention and control have been promulgated, and comprehensive liberalization has moved forward
.

Domestically, the real estate stimulus policy has continued to increase in recent days, the "new ten" of epidemic prevention has been further relaxed, and the market risk appetite has increased significantly, but the latest export data still has fallen sharply, and it remains to be seen
whether the subsequent economic data will substantially improve.
On the supply side, the energy pressure in overseas regions has eased recently, and the pace of production cuts has slowed down significantly, paying attention to the follow-up energy tension
.
The impact of domestic production restrictions has not been further expanded, Sichuan's production capacity is gradually recovering, Henan, Guizhou and other places are less affected production capacity, while Yunnan's affected production capacity range is basically maintained, pay attention to its follow-up situation and duration
.

On the whole, the new disturbances on the supply side are limited, but due to factors such as electricity, there are still certain constraints, and the production capacity may be low
in the short term.
In terms of downstream demand, enterprises are still mainly based on just-needed procurement, and the transaction is general
.
In terms of terminal consumption, macro expectations have been improving in the near future, and although social inventories have recovered slightly, they are still at a historical low
.

On the whole, the production capacity of Shanghai aluminum supply side releases existing constraints, while downstream demand expectations continue to improve, superimposed inventories are still at a low level, market long sentiment continues, Shanghai aluminum bulls can continue to hold
.