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Overnight, Lun aluminum fell first and then rose, and Shanghai aluminum rebounded
.
China's CPI and PPI month-on-month growth in September continued to fall, and non-ferrous metals fluctuated and sorted
.
Today's Shanghai aluminum shock higher, the main force again tested the 14,800 mark after a slight fall, as of the close, the main 2011 contract at 14,710 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.
34%.
On the macro level, there may be no hope of a fiscal stimulus deal before the US election, and China's economic fundamentals have recovered, supporting better than expected
new RMB loans and social financing data in September.
In terms of supply, with the recovery of aluminum prices, aluminum companies have maintained a high profit state for nearly half a year since April, which has accelerated the release of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and 1 million tons of production capacity will be released in the fourth quarter, and the pressure on aluminum prices on the supply side has increased
significantly.
In terms of demand, real estate is that the overall demand for aluminum remains stable, automobiles benefit from the recovery of demand, and it is difficult for aluminum exports to improve
significantly.
Therefore, the marginal increase in demand in the fourth quarter was limited
.
In the market, the price of Chinalco East China AOO aluminum ingots was 14960 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan
.
Recent aluminum inventory accumulation is limited, from the later years of data, electrolytic aluminum social inventory is expected to maintain destocking, but the industry investment capacity continues to release, the fourth quarter supply is expected to increase, it is expected that today's spot aluminum price rise and fall is limited
.
In general, due to the acceleration of the pace of supply-side release and the slowdown of the recovery rhythm of the demand-side peak season, and after the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" in the fourth quarter, downstream demand will turn into the traditional off-season, and aluminum ingots will return to the accumulation cycle
.
The change in the rhythm of supply and demand has made aluminum prices gradually enter a downward cycle
over time.
Aluminum prices are running to a relatively high level, and it is recommended to increase the short on the high under the
gradual weakening of macro expectations and low inventory support.
