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Today's Shanghai aluminum 1612 contract continued to rebound, but fell from the high at the end of the day, and finally closed at 12350 yuan / ton, up 0.
73% from yesterday's closing price, and down 0.
84%
from the intraday high of 12455 yuan / ton.
At the same time, the term structure of the aluminum market maintained a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative spread between Shanghai aluminum 1611 and 1612 contracts widened to 240 yuan / ton, indicating that the risk of high pullback in forward contracts increased
.
Externally: Asian Lun aluminum rushed back down, of which 3-month Lun aluminum only rose slightly 0.
15% to 1662 US dollars / ton, effectively maintaining the overnight gain, so that Lun aluminum effectively stabilized above the moving average group, but the short-term Lun aluminum RSI indicator rose to the overbought area, need to be vigilant of technical correction demand, short-term operating range focus on 1700-1650 US dollars / ton
.
On the macro front: the Asian dollar index edged higher to around 95.
5, and the preliminary US durable goods orders in August were flat m/m, better than expected a decline of 1.
5%.
In addition, this week's OPEC informal talks reached an agreement to limit production for the first time in eight years, setting the output target at 32.
50-33 million tong/day, and November will decide how long to limit production and how to allocate production reduction tasks, which stimulated a sharp rise in oil prices, which will drive non-ferrous metals higher
.
Market: On September 29, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 13440-13480 yuan / ton, the monthly premium was 620-650 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration was 13510-13590 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration was 13420-13440 yuan / ton
。 East China inventory has been greatly reduced under the demand for National Day stocking, especially Wuxi inventory has dropped to about 20,000 tons, the source of circulation is seriously lacking, downstream stocking is still continuing, the spot transaction price is rising under tight supply, downstream stocking just need to receive goods, Wuxi spot price hit a new high this year, Shanghai with higher inventory and Hangzhou with relatively balanced supply transaction is slightly inferior to the Wuxi market
.
The Shanghai aluminum 1612 contract oscillated to stabilize to 12350 yuan / ton during the day, and its rebound pattern remained good, while with the recent continuous decline in the previous inventory, indicating that the spot is tightening, or the Shanghai aluminum remains relatively strong
.
It is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 1612 contract can be cautiously long above 12,200 yuan, with a target of 12,500 yuan
.
