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Trade Service
This week, Shanghai aluminum showed a volatile upward trend, with the main 2103 contract closing at 15,900 yuan, up 345 yuan
weekly.
This week, Shanghai aluminum performance is strong, Shanghai aluminum 2103 contract rose sharply for two consecutive days after standing at the 15,500 yuan mark, breaking through the upper pressure level
.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks totaled 775,000 tons on Tuesday, an increase of 61,000 tons from last Thursday, and Wuxi, Nanhai, Hangzhou and Gongyi all contributed to the increase
.
At present, it is about to enter the Spring Festival holiday, most aluminum processing enterprises have taken a holiday in advance, the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises has declined significantly, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots may continue to increase
in the future.
Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises further declined
.
According to SMM data, the weekly start of downstream leading enterprises decreased sharply by 11.
8 percentage points to 60%.
Among them, the northern aluminum profile enterprises have stopped production and taken holidays more, and the decline in operation is more obvious
.
The current reduction in operating rate is expected, and the key to affecting the trend of aluminum prices lies in the recovery of
demand after the holiday.
On Wednesday, spot A00 aluminum ingots discounted 60 yuan / ton to 20 yuan / ton for the current month's contract, basically unchanged
from last week.
The spread between the 2103 and 2104 contracts narrowed, while the spread between the 2104 and 2105 contracts widened, if the demand for aluminum consumption after the holiday is strong, according to the 2020 Shanghai aluminum futures spread change data, it is expected that the spread between contracts will still have room
to expand.
In terms of the new crown epidemic, the recent number of new confirmed cases in China is showing a downward trend, in addition, this year China has called for a different place to celebrate the New Year, and it is expected that during the Spring Festival, the probability of a significant deterioration of the domestic new crown pneumonia epidemic is extremely low
.
Therefore, during the Spring Festival this year, it is unlikely that there will be market risks
in China.
