Shanghai aluminum rebound weak It is recommended to treat it with a wait-and-see approach

On the supply side, there are many overseas energy disturbance factors, even if the price of natural gas falls sharply, the price of electricity is still much higher than the same period, so it is difficult for the aluminum smelters that have been suspended to resume normal production in the short term; Domestically, bauxite imports have decreased sharply, and the epidemic situation in the north has eased, but the overall operating rate of bauxite is not high, and the market transaction is relatively limited; In terms of electrolytic aluminum, Sichuan's resumption of production has recently slowed down further due to the epidemic, and Yunnan still maintains a 20% reduction in production, and some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Henan have incurred losses due to high costs, and plan to reduce production by 10%-15%, with more
disturbances on the supply side.

On the demand side, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises last week fell by 0.
2 percentage points month-on-month, the recent epidemic has frequently affected transportation, aluminum processing enterprises in some areas have insufficient raw material inventory, operating rate has declined, consumption is also limited, the peak season has passed, and it is difficult for later demand to have a greater bright performance
.

In terms of inventory, both domestic and foreign are at a low level, domestic transportation restrictions due to the epidemic, inventory is still destocked, the epidemic is alleviated in the later stage, and it will accumulate after
the arrival of concentrated goods.

On the whole, with the arrival of the off-season of consumption, the market is more worried about the decline in consumption, coupled with the large backlog of aluminum ingots in Xinjiang and northwest China affected by the epidemic, and the aluminum price is under pressure above, but the tight cost and spot supply still has some support below the price, and it is recommended to treat
it with a wait-and-see approach.