Shanghai aluminum rose sharply, and downstream demand is still difficult to say optimistic

Market focus: (1) The IMF expects global GDP growth to be -3% in 2020, and 5.
8%
in 2021 if the epidemic can be effectively controlled in the second half of this year.
(2) China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in March were 518,594 tons, a new high since May 2019, a sharp increase of 60.
38% month-on-month and a slight decrease of 5.
02% year-on-year; From January to February, it was 669,208 tons
.

Spot analysis: On April 15, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 11890-11930 yuan / ton, with an average price of 11910 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 100 yuan / ton
.
Before the afternoon, the cargo holders were very active, and the middlemen were also more active, superimposed on a large account receiving nearly 10,000 tons of goods in a day, and the trading of buyers and sellers was acceptable
.
Downstream intraday is still mainly on-demand delivery, and the receipt of goods is flat
.
The overall transaction in East China was acceptable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 299745 tons on Tuesday, an increase of 8,015 tons per day; On April 9, LME aluminum stocks were 1,239,700 tons, an increase of 12,250 tons per day, an increase of 4 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2006 contract were 90249 lots, a daily increase of 1491 lots, a short position of 108858 lots, a daily decrease of 106 lots, a net short position of 18609 lots, a daily decrease of 1597 lots, more increase and a decrease in short, and a decrease
in net space.

At present, aluminum prices are still below the cost line, electrolytic aluminum plants are in a state of comprehensive losses, resulting in increased scale of production reductions, coupled with the recovery of downstream processing plant production, demand recovery has made Shanghai aluminum inventories enter a downward channel, and aluminum prices have strong support below
.
However, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy continues, overseas orders have declined significantly, and downstream demand is still difficult to say optimistic; Coupled with the further weakening of alumina prices, the cost line continues to move downward, and it also reduces the production reduction expectations of aluminum plants, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is weakened
.
In terms of spot, the cargo holders shipped very actively before the afternoon, and the middlemen were also more active, superimposed on a large household receiving nearly 10,000 tons of goods within the day, the buyers and sellers traded fairly, and the downstream day was still mainly on demand
.
Technically, the main 2006 contract of Shanghai aluminum has reduced its position, and the mainstream position has increased and decreased, and the short-term shock is expected to be strong
.