Shanghai aluminum rushed back down and the short-term decline risk increased

Spot: According to SMM reports, on November 1, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 16110-16130 yuan / ton, the discount for the month was 140-100 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration was 16110-16130 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration was 16120-16140 yuan / ton
。 Today's spot discount is wider than yesterday, especially at the beginning of the session, the overall shipment strength of the holder is not as good as yesterday, and the discount narrows with the decline in intraday trading, the attitude of the holder shipment gradually rebounds, the short-term price difference driven by the nickel price limit is expanded, the willingness of middlemen to receive goods is active, downstream enterprises maintain on-demand procurement, and the overall transaction continues to pick up, mainly from the contribution of
traders.

Internal market trend: the main contract of Shanghai aluminum 1801 contract rushed back down during the day, completely engulfing the intraday gains, showing that the upper selling pressure was heavier, intraday trading at 16575-16225 yuan / ton, the end of the day closed at 16235 yuan / ton, down 0.
79%
on the day.
At present, aluminum prices have fallen below the oscillation range, and the short-term decline risk has increased
.
At the same time, the positive price difference between Shanghai-aluminum 1712 and 1801 contracts narrowed to 95 yuan / ton, maintaining a positive arrangement
of near-low, far-high.

Analysis of market factors: The Asian dollar index continued to fluctuate at a high level and is now trading around
94.
59.
China's Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 51 in October, unchanged from September, the fifth consecutive month in expansion territory, indicating a slight improvement
in manufacturing operations.
In terms of aluminum market information, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association: Chinese aluminum foil enterprises do not dump in the United States
.

Market research and judgment: On November 1, Shanghai aluminum 1712 rushed back down to 16235 yuan / ton, and Shanghai aluminum currently fell to run
below the moving average group.
In today's Shanghai nickel sealed in the price limit, and other non-ferrous metals oscillations rising, the aluminum futures are under pressure to decline, highlighting the heavier selling pressure above, short-term or need to change the operation idea, the operation suggests that the Shanghai aluminum 1801 contract can be backed by 16450 yuan below the sky, the entry reference around
16300 yuan.