Shanghai aluminum shock downward market consumption shows signs of weakening

Today's Lun aluminum low volatility, LME three-month Beijing time at 15:02 at 2418 US dollars / ton, down 16 US dollars, or 0.
66%,
from the previous trading day's settlement price.

In terms of the market, today's spot trading price of Yangtze River is 18630-18670 yuan / ton, down 110 yuan; Guangdong South Reserve reported 18780-18840 yuan / ton, down 130 yuan; Hua reported 18690-18730 yuan / ton, down 110 yuan
.
Traders are bearish and shipped, receiving parties are waiting and seeing, prices are reduced and purchased on demand, large households are generally enthusiastic about receiving goods, and the overall transaction activity has declined
.

Macro, the Fed's June interest rate meeting was generally hawkish, although it maintained its easing policy, but raised the interest rate on excess reserves and the overnight reverse repo rate, and for the first time there was an expectation of two interest rate hikes in 2023, and the expectation of interest rate hikes was advanced again, which overall strengthened the market expectation that monetary policy was about to turn, and monetary policy entered a transition period
.

In terms of policy, according to the currently announced reserves in July, the aluminum ingot social library will not have much increment, and considering that China's imports still have a certain gap, the overall supply and demand balance of aluminum throughout the year is not too much disturbance
.

Fundamentally, supply-side disruptions are fading, and the downstream consumer market has shown some signs of
weakening as the July consumption off-season approaches.
Overall, policy pressure and the premise of marginal weakening of fundamentals may limit the upward
movement of aluminum prices.