Shanghai aluminum shock fell back The market as a whole is volatile

On the macro front, the Fed chairman reiterated that he would not tighten policy easily, inflation and employment targets remained well below the Fed's target, and the dollar suffered
.
In terms of fundamentals, SMM inventory on the 22nd reported 1.
022 million tons, an increase of 12.
1 from before the holiday, due to the restriction of loading from east China to northwest before the holiday, and the arrival peak was late; In the same period, the steel union statistics of aluminum rod inventory of 274,500 tons, an increase of 34,500 tons over the pre-holiday period, aluminum rod inventory growth is high
.

From a fundamental point of view, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has been in the accumulation cycle, and the downstream aluminum rod inventory has also increased greatly, but the market transaction downstream reserve warehouse and demand start logic, but ignore the lack
of fundamentals.
The particularity of this year's Spring Festival determines the mismatch of production and demand in the processing industry, and some aluminum ingots are transferred to downstream finished product inventory
in advance.
The key in the later stage is the accumulation of social stocks such as aluminum ingots and aluminum rods; The second is whether the rise in price can be reflected in the processing fee, that is, whether the rise in aluminum prices can be smoothly transmitted
to the terminal.

In the short term, the high market sentiment under the aluminum price is still guaranteed, investors must pay attention to the time node in mid-March, when the fundamental accumulation cycle is over, the demand is started, and pay attention to the landing
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that aluminum companies should purchase on demand and should not overstock; Smelters choose the opportunity to sell hedging
.