Shanghai aluminum shock fell slightly and the upper pressure increased

Market focus: (1) On August 3, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new crowns in the world exceeded 18.
14 million, of which more than 4.
81 million were infected in the United States, and new cases in India and Brazil are also increasing
rapidly.
(2) As of July 31, Mymetal surveyed 83 electrolytic aluminum plants in production across the country, with a total inventory of 79,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from last week and 50,000 tons from the same period last month
.

Spot analysis: On August 3, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14860-14900 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14880 yuan / ton, down 110 yuan / ton
per day.
The supply of goods within the day is sufficient, the number of automobile shipments in Shanxi has increased, the number of brands in the market circulation is more, the holders are actively shipping, the price is relatively strong, the middleman receives the goods is acceptable, the two sides are trading flat, there is not much bright spot, a large household purchases normally within the day, the published amount is less than 10,000 tons, and the quotation is mediocre.

Downstream intraday on-demand procurement is the mainstay, although aluminum prices have fallen, but their own orders have weakened, so the enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 99,918 tons, a daily decrease of 2,248 tons; On July 31, LME aluminum stocks were 1637425 tons, a daily decrease of 5,700 tons
.
As of the week ended July 31, the previous period of aluminum stocks reported 221819 tons, down 679 tons
per week.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2009 contract were 70460 lots, minus 1973 lots, short positions were 92803 lots, daily minus 1595 lots, net short positions were 22343 lots, a daily increase of 378 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: On August 3, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2009 rebounded
.
The global epidemic continues to spread, resulting in greater uncertainty about the economic outlook; At the same time, the profit of domestic electrolytic aluminum production has expanded, which has stimulated aluminum plants to accelerate the resumption of new production; And the rise in the Shanghai ratio has led to the expansion of the import profit window, stimulating overseas source imports, and the pressure on aluminum prices has increased
.
However, strong economic data, while the European and American economies are recovering, and monetary easing is maintained, which is conducive to boosting market confidence; And the performance of domestic downstream demand is better than expected, and inventory is still showing a trend of dematerialization, which has strong
support for aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, the holder actively ships the goods, the price is relatively strong, the middleman can receive the goods, a large household purchases normally, and the downstream procurement is mainly
on-demand.
Technically, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai aluminum is facing more than 14800 closing pressure, and there is support below 14550, which is expected to be strong in the short term
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long at a pullback around 14550 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 14400 yuan / ton
.