Shanghai aluminum shock finishing short-term decline may slow down

In terms of the external market, Lun aluminum opened at 1699.
5 US dollars / ton in the morning, the Asian session followed the trend of domestic Shanghai aluminum, slightly upward at the beginning of the session touched 1703 US dollars / ton, and then dragged down by domestic Shanghai aluminum continued to fall, the low touched 1694 US dollars / ton, entering the European trading session, Lun aluminum rose sharply, breaking through the 10-day moving average resistance once touched 1704.
5 US dollars / ton, as of 18:25 Lun aluminum 1702.
5 US dollars / ton, pay attention to the US non-farm data, it is expected that Lun aluminum will continue to try to stand on the 10-day moving average, Continue consolidating
around $1,700.

In terms of industry, the survey shows that the average production cost of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in China in December was 13,485 yuan / ton, the industry loss reached 700 yuan / ton, and the weighted average cost was 13,000 yuan / ton; Chalco Qinghai Branch completed an output of 407,300 tons last year, an increase of 7,811 tons or 2% over 2015; Alcoa said on January 3 that it will temporarily close the Suralco bauxite mine and alumina refinery in Suriname, with a full capacity of 2.
2 million tons of alumina per year; As of the end of December, the domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting operation capacity was 36.
74 million tons, with a capacity operation rate of 84%, of which the completed production capacity in December increased by 135,000 tons, and a total of 15 enterprises added or resumed production
.

In terms of the market, the aluminum rose first and then suppressed
in the month.
Shanghai transaction concentration is 12650-12660 yuan / ton, flat water to premium water 30 yuan / ton in the month, Wuxi transaction concentration is 12640-12650 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration is 12640-12660 yuan / ton
.
East China's overall supply is sufficient, spot prices are flat from the previous day, downstream consumption enters the off-season, premium drops slightly, holders ship steadily, aluminum fluctuates in a narrow range, spot premiums continue to decline, middlemen can participate in a limited way, spot prices enter a stable and weak period, downstream enterprises purchase on demand, weekend stock demand weakens, and the overall transaction volume shows stable
prices.
Aluminum fell in the afternoon of the month, down 100 yuan / ton, few market inquirers, holders of quotations, Wuxi only a small amount of 12590 yuan / ton, the market is silent
.

In terms of inventory, data show that as of January 5, the total social inventory of aluminum in the five domestic places was 343,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday, and the increase in inventory is still continuing
.
At present, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is gradually released, and the output growth trend continues; Reflected in the spot market, inventories have accelerated and premiums have fallen sharply, and aluminum prices continue to be under pressure
in the medium term.
On the market, Shanghai aluminum will continue to test the 12,500 first-line support, the short-term decline may slow down, pay attention to the high short selling opportunity
after the medium-term rebound.