Shanghai aluminum shock operation has limited fundamental support

Today, Lun aluminum is running at a high level, and the LME three-month aluminum Beijing time is at 1996 US dollars / ton at 15:00, up 14.
5 US dollars, or 0.
73%,
from the settlement price of the previous trading day.

In terms of the market, today's spot trading price of Yangtze River is 15750-15790 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan; Guangdong South Reserve reported 15860-15920 yuan / ton, down 160 yuan; Hua reported 15860-15880 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan
.
The circulation supply is abundant, downstream procurement is still sluggish, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is general, and the transaction performance is not good
.

On the demand side, demand weakened month-on-month in December, orders fell in real estate and automobiles, in addition to seasonal factors, the environmental impact in Henan and the impact of power cuts in Zhejiang also had an impact on demand, but the recent additional factors affecting consumption may fade, which will have an impact
on continued weaker consumption or in the short term.

On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity continued to rise, slightly exceeding previous expectations from a new increase in December (nearly 400,000 tons), while the import window was still open and supply maintained an upward trend
.

Recently, the aluminum market has been greatly disturbed by macro, and the relative changes in vaccines and epidemics and stimulus policies continue to affect macro sentiment and influence the direction of
prices.
Fundamentally, the seasonal off-season is coming, superimposed on the growth trend of continuous release of supply, the margin of supply and demand tends to weaken, one of the important factors supporting aluminum prices has changed, aluminum prices have turned to a phased decline, it is recommended to sell short
at a high price.