Shanghai aluminum short-term rapid rise, long-term rally unchanged

Last week, aluminum prices accelerated to jump, and Yangtze River aluminum prices quickly jumped to 22500
.
The midstream sell-off is positive, the downstream fear of heights is obvious, and on-demand procurement is the mainstay
.

On the macro front, Taper's expectation of moving back has also added a fire
to the upward movement of aluminum prices.
At present, the haze of power rationing and dual control policies on energy consumption still shrouds the electrolytic aluminum market and has become the core driving force
for the rise in aluminum prices.
Although it is reported that power rationing has been loosened in Yunnan, it is difficult to resume large-scale production
in the short term.
Under the expectation of stricter policies, it is not ruled out that more production capacity will be affected, and the market is still pessimistic
about the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity.

On the cost side, the price of alumina has risen sharply recently, the cost of electricity has also risen due to the rise in coal prices, and the overall cost of electrolytic aluminum has increased, but the growth rate is still not as good as the aluminum price itself, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum continues to expand
.

On the demand side, since entering September, there has been no peak season
.
High aluminum prices and strict real estate policies have restricted the recent increase in new orders of construction profile companies, and the problem of lack of "core" in automobiles has dragged down the start of
aluminum alloys.
As downstream enterprises are pessimistic about peak season expectations, the risk of peak season is enhanced
.
Photovoltaics and new energy vehicles have become the two major sources
of terminal demand.

On the futures side, the Hulun aluminum bullish trend is intact, accelerating last week, trying to challenge the all-time high around
24,000.
However, the persistence of such acceleration is generally poor, and we should be wary of rapid adjustments
that may occur at any time.
Aluminum prices continue to fluctuate strongly
.
Lun Aluminum's long-term rally has been maintained, and last week it rushed sharply above 2900, hitting a record high
.
The long-term rally of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, and the short-term rapid rise, hitting the historical high around
24,000.
Focus on the ongoing situation
.