Shanghai aluminum showed a volatile downward trend

The sharp decline in aluminum prices in recent days is related to global systemic risks, on the one hand, because the market is worried that the new crown pneumonia epidemic in Europe will break out for a second time, and on the other hand, because the US dollar has once again become the first choice for safe-haven, and the US dollar index has risen
sharply.

At present, base metals have entered the traditional consumption season, from the demand side performance, aluminum downstream demand is indeed recovering, but the recovery is not as expected
by the market.
The overall operating rate of enterprises maintained a slight growth, of which the operating rate of aluminum plate and foil enterprises performed better, while the operating rate of aluminum profile and cable enterprises decreased
slightly.

China's imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in August were 429,000 tons, an increase of 723.
6% year-on-year and 9.
8%
month-on-month.
Aluminum imports in July and August hit new highs, mainly because Shanghai's profit window continued to open
at a historical high for many years.
The average profit of primary aluminum imports in September was about 250 yuan / ton, which was lower than the average import profit in July, but higher than the average import profit in August
.
At the same time, aluminum inventories in the bonded zone continue to increase, and aluminum imports are expected to remain high in September
.

According to statistics, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum on Thursday was 716,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons
from the previous month.
Last week's aluminum inventory fell by 02,000 tons to 249,000 tons
.
Social inventories began to fall again, while inventories in the previous period remained volatile
.

At present, based on the plate price, the profit of electrolytic aluminum smelting is about 2320 yuan / ton, which is still at a historical high
.
According to Baichuan Information, in September ~ December, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum can resume production of 1.
31 million tons, and can also be put into production of 1.
82 million tons, and the overall supply pressure is greater
.

Although the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is still at a low level, and the inventory in the off-season has only increased slightly, and now it has begun to fall again, indicating that downstream demand is relatively good
.
At the same time, the domestic economy is recovering rapidly, so it is expected that after the release of recent systemic risks, aluminum prices still have room to rise, and it is recommended to adopt a long-selling strategy
.