Shanghai aluminum stopped falling and stabilized, and the short-term trend maintained shock sorting

On the macro front: The Asian dollar index climbed strongly, now trading around 97.
2, the highest since March 4 of the year, as the US June housing starts and construction permits data were much stronger than expected and market expectations for the Federal Reserve's July interest rate hike rose
.
The market is currently focused on Thursday's ECB interest rate meeting, which is expected to remain on hold
.

Market: On July 20, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 12500-12540 yuan / ton, and the premium for the month was 100-120 yuan / ton
.
Wanfang due to flood suspension of production, to boost the spot market atmosphere, the holder controls the strength of shipments, high price and sales, with the active transaction of Shanghai holders along the way to adjust the price, the later transaction appeared 12550-12560 yuan / ton of high quotation, because the spot to the month premium, warehouse receipt Qingtongxia into Wuxi spot market, the transaction price concentrated 12540 yuan / ton, middlemen replenishment willingness to increase, active inquiry, downstream enterprises passively follow the receipt, the overall transaction is warmer than yesterday, although Wanfang supply is temporarily blocked, However, the basic balance of supply and demand has not fundamentally changed, and it is still necessary to be vigilant against high risks
.

Industry: China's primary aluminum production in June was 2.
686 million tons, a slight increase of 0.
22% month-on-month, but down 2.
4% year-on-year, while the cumulative output of primary aluminum from January to June was 15.
32 million tons, down 1.
9% year-on-year, the fifth consecutive month of decline, showing that the effect of reducing production by aluminum enterprises in the first half of the year has begun to appear
.

Today's Shanghai aluminum 1609 contract oscillated and rebounded to 12330 yuan / ton, slightly resisting the decline of other base metals
.
Due to the decline in China's primary aluminum production in the first half of the year as scheduled, the supply pressure on the aluminum market weakened
.
Short-term aluminum prices pulled back to around M60, trend or oscillation, operation needs to be cautious
.