Shanghai aluminum upward action can weaken short-term maintenance of high volatility

In terms of the external market, in the morning, Lun aluminum opened at 1818 US dollars / ton, the beginning of the session fell slightly to 1811 US dollars / ton, and then put the volume up to above the daily moving average, the Asian session is basically around the daily average narrow range oscillation, into the European trading session, Lun aluminum volume rose, once touched 1827 US dollars / ton, as of 18:03, Lun aluminum 1823.
5 US dollars / ton, pay attention to the European Central Bank refinancing rate and the number of US jobless claims, it is expected that Lun aluminum will continue to oscillate around the Bollinger band, seeking a
。

In terms of the market, the aluminum period fluctuated around the daily moving average before the afternoon of the month, first suppressing and then rising
.
Shanghai transaction concentration is 13170-13190 yuan / ton, the discount for the month is 110-90 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration is 13170-13190 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration is 13160-13180 yuan / ton
.
Smelters are selling at high prices, the market circulation is less, approaching the Spring Festival holiday, middlemen to clear inventory, reduce inventory for the holiday, downstream enterprises Spring Festival stocking is nearing the end, the willingness to receive goods has fallen, the overall transaction, the holder with the last opportunity of this week's downstream stocking quotation is strong, showing a state of supply and demand
.
In the late afternoon, aluminum continued to fluctuate in the month, and the willingness of middlemen and downstream to receive goods was cold, and the transaction was concentrated at 13160-13170 yuan / ton
.

In terms of news, data from the official website of the World Financial Statistics Bureau (WBMS) shows that the global primary aluminum market supply shortage from January to November 2016 was 970,000 tons, of which global demand was 53.
58 million tons, an increase of 68,000 tons from the first 11 months of 2015, and output fell 0.
4%
from the same period in 2015.
In November 2016, global primary aluminum production was 4.
9489 million tons, and consumption was 5.
017 million tons
.

On the whole, in the off-season of consumption, downstream demand is weak, coupled with the continuous increase in domestic spot inventory, suppressing the upward momentum of aluminum prices, but the de-capacity is expected to be positive for aluminum prices
.
Technically, the K line has a long upper and lower shadow, and the MACD indicator red bar becomes shorter, indicating that the upward momentum is weakened, and it is expected that the main force of Shanghai aluminum will fluctuate weakly at a high level, with a running range of 13200-13500
.