Shanghai aluminum upward weakness price maintained a volatile trend

In terms of news, Chinalco Shanxi part of the alumina production line implements flexible production, involving an alumina production capacity of about 770,000 tons
.
Henan Luoyang Aluminum plans to shut down an alumina production line
with a capacity of hundreds of thousands of tons.
The flexible production and suspension of some domestic alumina shows that the aluminum market is not optimistic, and the pressure above the aluminum price still exists, and the current aluminum pressure is falling
.
However, on the other hand, due to the successive release of alumina production reduction news by domestic aluminum enterprises, short-term or inventory reduction pressure to provide some support for the rebound of aluminum prices, aluminum prices have been shocked and risen
.

In terms of inventory, the trend of Lun aluminum inventory maintained an upward trend this week, with the latest inventory reported 1,144,700 metric tons, with a total increase of 38,725 metric tons, an increase of about 3.
5%; The total aluminum stock on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 917655 tons, down 15,160 tons, or about 1.
6%,
from last week.

Macro Information:

Domestically, commodities closely related to macroeconomic growth "collectively fell"
on the 11th as the market became increasingly worried that the intensification of trade frictions would affect the real economy and hinder global economic growth.

On the international front, the U.
S
.
Trade Representative has initiated preparations for a 10% tariff on these Chinese goods.
After the announcement, traders in financial markets reacted to the deterioration of Sino-US relations, causing financial markets to fall, and the news also attracted criticism
from Trump's Republican Party.

Aluminum market dynamics:

1.
China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products exceeded 500,000 tons in June, the second highest level in history, as overseas prices were higher than domestic prices to stimulate exports
.

2.
At the end of June 2018, China's aluminum fluoride inventory was about 12,200 tons, a sharp decrease of 61% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 122%.

Outlook for the future: The Sino-US trade war is in full swing, the non-ferrous metal market is bleak, although supported by the news of production cuts, but the impact is gradually fading, and the current aluminum price is weak this week
.
The off-season is coming, the market consumption is not expected to be good, the operating rate of the downstream processing end has declined, and the weak demand has limited the rise in aluminum prices, and it is expected that the current aluminum will maintain range volatility
next week.