Shanghai aluminum volatility is higher, follow-up attention to whether demand has substantially improved

On the macro front, the latest US inflation data retreated, market expectations for the pace of interest rate hikes slowed down again, US recession expectations rose, and the US dollar index fell back below 105
.
Domestically, stimulus policies have been frequent, and real estate stimulus policies have been increased again in recent days, superimposed on the signs of relaxation of the epidemic, and market risk appetite has increased significantly, paying attention to whether there is substantial improvement
in the future.

On the supply side, the energy pressure in overseas regions has eased recently, and the pace of production cuts has slowed down significantly, paying attention to the follow-up energy tension
.
Domestically, the impact of production restrictions has not been further expanded, Sichuan's production capacity is gradually recovering, Henan, Guizhou and other places have less affected production capacity, while Yunnan's affected production capacity range is basically maintained, pay attention to its follow-up situation and duration, overall, the recent new disturbances on the supply side are limited
.
In terms of downstream demand, enterprises are still mainly based on just-needed procurement, and the transaction is general
.
In terms of terminal consumption, macro expectations have been improving in the near future, and exchanges and social inventories are at historical
lows.

In terms of inventory, the total inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has now fallen to about 500,000 tons, and fewer arrivals in some areas
.

On the whole, in the short term, the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots remains low, and the overall spot market is tight, which still has some support for the fundamentals of domestic aluminum prices, and the current contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent for the time being, and it is recommended to treat
it with the idea of high selling and low absorption.