Shanghai copper continues to fluctuate at a high level, and the risk of pullback increases

Externally: Ashi Lun copper fluctuated in a narrow range, of which the 3-month London copper edged down 0.
37% to 5738 US dollars / ton, for the third consecutive week into a high oscillation sorting, its oscillation platform lower edge focus on 5610 US dollars / ton
.
In terms of positions, on December 9, the position of London copper was 384,000 lots, an increase of 3,870 lots per day, and the short-term long-short divergence increased
.

Macro: The Asian dollar index fluctuates in a narrow range, now trading around 101, focusing on the Fed's interest rate meeting this week, with high
expectations of interest rate hikes.
In addition, the added value of China's industries above designated size in November increased by 6.
2% year-on-year, slightly higher than the previous value and expectations of 6.
1%, while the national fixed asset investment from January to November increased by 8.
3% year-on-year, the growth rate was the same as from January to October, but the growth rate of real estate investment slowed down to 6.
5%, showing the effect of real estate regulation and control
.
In terms of industry information, it is reported that the Zambian government's Ministry of Mines and Mines expects Zambia's copper production to increase to 800,000 tons next year, as new mining projects are launched and international copper prices stabilize
.

In terms of market: on December 13, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contracts reported a premium of 20 yuan / ton - 120 yuan / ton of water premium, and the trading price of flat water copper was 46560-46740 yuan / ton
.
Shanghai copper near-delivery basis expanded to 200-250 yuan / ton, so that speculators are eager to move, enter the market to receive, holders generally see the basis change quotation, intraday mainstream quotation is more disordered, especially the price difference between flat water copper brands widened, wet copper and flat water copper price difference further narrowed, because copper prices back behind some downstream on-demand delivery, near noon the market is difficult to find a source of water copper, flat water copper benefited, the transaction was significantly improved
compared with yesterday.
As delivery approaches, even if the price spread remains at a large level, there is limited
room for copper premium pushing.

The Shanghai copper 1702 contract fell under pressure to 46,920 yuan / ton during the day, continuing the recent high oscillation, and its upper rebound resistance focused on 48,500 yuan / ton, highlighting the increased
risk of its high pullback.
In addition, the net excess of the US copper CFTC speculative fund hit a new record high, and it is necessary to be wary of the bulls' profit-taking pressure, suggesting that the Shanghai copper 1702 contract can be backed by 48,000 yuan below the sky, and the entry reference is around 47,200 yuan, and the target is 46,500 yuan / ton
.