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On Tuesday, the main 2112 contract of Shanghai copper continued to fall under pressure, with the highest 70990 yuan / ton and the lowest 69380 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price of 69660 yuan / ton, down 0.
68% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME copper continued to fall under pressure, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper reported 9462 yuan / ton, down 0.
42%
per day.
Market Focus: (1) U.
S.
Senator Joe Manchin said Congress needs more time to assess the impact
of President Joe Biden's $1.
75 trillion tax and spending plan on the economy and government debt.
This shows that the possibility of rapid progress of these economic bills is seriously frustrated
.
(2) RBA President Lowe lowered his bond yield target and hinted at a possible early rate
hike.
(3) According to Mysteel data, on November 1, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the Chinese market was 94,100 tons, an increase of 03,800 tons from the 25th and an increase of 05,500 tons
from October 28.
(4) Chile's state-owned copper giant Codelco offered a copper premium of $105 per tonne to Chinese copper customers in 2022, up $17 or 19.
3%
from $88 per tonne in 2021.
Spot analysis: SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 70980-71470 yuan / ton, the average price is 71225 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 105 yuan / ton
.
Cargo holders generally report premiums, downstream maintenance of on-demand procurement, good trading, and overall transaction is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai was 11,859 tons, a daily decrease of 500 tons; On the 1st, LME copper stocks were 131,300 tons, a daily decrease of 8,875 tons, and a decline of 24 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2112 contract 88744, -1218, short positions 105432, -1136, net positions -16688, -82, long and short are reduced, net short slightly increased
.
Market research and judgment: the Fed may continue to adhere to the inflation transitory theory, coupled with the possibility of the RBA raising interest rates in advance, the US dollar index is under pressure; Under the background of China's coal control policy, market sentiment remained cautious
until coal prices stabilized.
Fundamentals, due to the high price of sulfuric acid, domestic refineries are more willing to schedule production under high profits; However, domestic power cuts and tightening crude copper supply have limited refinery operating rates, resulting in a lack of growth in refined copper production; In addition, the transport of Antamina in Peru was disrupted and continued to ferment.
At present, downstream demand is weak, while imported copper inflows have slowed down, and domestic inventories have increased slightly; Foreign countries still maintain destocking, and copper prices are expected to stabilize.