Shanghai copper may enter a pattern of easy to fall and difficult to rise It is still in the off-season of consumption

In addition to the short-term supply-side bearish due to the official announcement of the National Development and Reform Commission's confirmation of the sell-off of reserves, the macro wind shift caused by this week's Fed interest rate meeting is the main reason for
the decline in copper prices.
On the eve of the meeting in the early hours of Thursday, due to the high inflation data in the United States, the market out of concern about the sudden tightening of liquidity, the early layout period copper long position to reduce positions, London copper fell from $10,000 to 9,500 on Tuesday, after the meeting hinted that it would raise interest rates early, the dollar index soared under pressure, copper prices on Thursday began a second round of plunge
.

With the strong recovery of the global economy, the tightening of liquidity is getting closer and closer, and the macro wind has changed
significantly.
After the peak of copper prices in May, the downside space opened in the third quarter, and the medium-term support level focused on 65,000, and the short-term does not rule out a slight stabilization and rebound after the over-fall, but the overall is expected to be prone to fall and difficult to rise
.

In terms of the market, spot copper fell by 3,020 yuan this week, and the premium was steadily lowered, and the good copper premium was 190 yuan
.
The market fell sharply one after another, the holders maintained a high premium, but the downstream replenishment willingness is not strong, although the inventory continues to decline, but the end of the month is expected to affect the rhythm of destocking, Thursday's buying performance increased, but Friday returned to light, it is understood that especially cable companies still maintain a wait-and-see mentality at the current price, waiting for a lower price to enter the market
.
In terms of import profit and loss, U.
S.
bond yields, the dollar index soared boosted by tightening expectations, and the import profit window reopened on Friday, with space within 200 yuan / ton
.

At present, Shanghai copper is still in the off-season of consumption, coupled with the tightening of liquidity expectations, the market confidence is not good, and the mid-end manufacturing industry is in a wait-and-see mood to slow down the upward momentum of prices
.
On the other hand, the State Reserve released non-ferrous metal inventories to suppress price speculation, and Shanghai copper may enter a pattern
of falling and difficult to rise in the short term.
However, it is worth noting that the global inflation pattern is still continuing, which may bring potential rebound to commodities in the later consumption season
.
At present, the fundamentals and market confidence have not eased, and it is expected that Shanghai copper will maintain a weak bottom-out pattern next week, which is prone to fall and rise
.