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On Tuesday, the main 2103 contract of Shanghai copper opened low and went low, with the highest 57910 yuan / ton in the day, the lowest 57260 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 57300 yuan / ton, down 1.
05% from the previous trading day's closing price; In the external market, LME copper fell under pressure, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at 7776 US dollars / ton, down 0.
59%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) The U.
S.
Treasury expects to borrow $274 billion from January to March, about $853 billion less than the U.
S.
Treasury forecast in November, when it was expected to be $1.
127 trillion
.
(2) The Congressional Budget Office expects real GDP to shrink by 2.
5% in 2020 and grow by 3.
7%
in 2021.
The unemployment rate is expected to be 6.
8% in 2020, 5.
3% in 2021 and 4.
9%
in 2022.
(3) It is understood that the recent surge in northern Chilean ports has led to a large-scale accumulation of copper exports in January
.
Spot analysis: On February 2, spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 57610-57840 yuan / ton, the average price of 57725 yuan / ton, down 115 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that cargo holders lowered the premium, received few goods, downstream demand continued to be weak, and transactions weakened
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 19,836 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 574 tons; On February 1, LME copper stocks were 74,275 tons, down 300 tons per day, down for 15 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2103 contract are 68766 lots, minus 1000 lots per day, short positions are 74992 lots, daily minus 1081 lots, net short positions are 6226 lots, daily increase of 81 lots, long and short are reduced, net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2103 opened low and went
low on February 2.
The U.
S.
Treasury's quarter-of-the-money funding program cut more than expected, while U.
S.
economic growth is expected to reach 3.
7 percent this year, making the dollar more attractive and the dollar index continuing to rise
.
Domestic copper mine supply maintained a tight pattern, copper ore processing fees TC continued to be reduced, and copper smelting costs were high; At present, domestic copper inventories are still at a historical low, coupled with the Chilean port encountered wind and waves and exports are blocked, it is expected that the impact on the future supply will gradually appear
.
However, the implementation of the new policy for scrap copper has led to a significant increase in imports, abundant raw materials for smelters, and the end of downstream stocking at the end of the year, the traditional off-season demand has gradually weakened, and copper prices have been weak
in the short term.
