Shanghai copper oscillation rebound, downside risks remain

Spot: According to reports, on November 10, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a discount of 50-10 yuan / ton for the monthly contract, and the trading price of flat water copper was 53300-53420 yuan / ton
.
Shanghai copper next month price difference still has no obvious change, holders maintain a stable quotation level, but the transaction still has not improved, good copper is difficult to rise but still unwilling to discount trading, flat water copper transaction is difficult again, some holders in order to seek transactions can only expand the discount, but downstream in yesterday's bargain after the appropriate amount of replenishment, today again stop, the transaction is difficult to do, the market conditions are lackluster
.

Internal trend: Shanghai copper main contract 1801 oscillation slightly rising, intraday trading at 53780-53160 yuan / ton, the end of the close at 53580 yuan / ton, up 0.
66% per day, the performance is stronger than other non-ferrous metals, the current Shanghai copper closing price fell to the nearly a week of oscillation finishing platform below, showing that bears have the advantage
.
In terms of term structure, the copper market maintained a positive arrangement of near low and far high, and the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1712 contract and the 1801 contract narrowed to 20 yuan / ton
.

External trend: Asian market London copper bottomed out, of which 3 months London copper traded at 6853-6806 US dollars / ton, now trading at 6842 US dollars / ton, below M60, that is, 6745 US dollars / ton support is still effective
.
In terms of positions, on November 8, the position of London copper was 320,000 lots, a daily decrease of 3,635 lots, the fifth consecutive day of reduction, a cumulative decrease of nearly 12,000 lots, and accompanied by the decline in copper price oscillations, indicating that the continuous exit of funds has reduced the upward momentum of copper prices
.

Analysis of market factors: The dollar index fell under pressure overnight, falling below the 95 mark, and today's Asian market rebound was weak, now trading around 94.
57, hitting a low in nearly two weeks, as the US tax reform bill regained its branches, mainly on the reduction of corporate taxes, the abolition of state taxes and local tax deductions
.
Pay attention to China's M2 money supply annual rate for October, and the release
of the preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the United States for November.
Copper industry information: It is reported that Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia may be interrupted due to armed separatist activities
.