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Today's Shanghai copper main contract 1703 contract rushed back down, closing at 45760 yuan / ton, down 1.
14% from the intraday high of 46290 yuan / ton, at present, Shanghai copper has not effectively broken through the upper moving average suppression, rebound resistance focus on 46500 yuan / ton
.
In terms of term structure, the copper market maintained a positive arrangement of near low and far high, and the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1702 contract and the 1703 contract remained at 150 yuan / ton, indicating that the forward contract has a strong
willingness to resist decline.
Externally: Asian Lun copper rushed back down, showing heavier selling pressure above, of which 3-month London copper only slightly rose 0.
87% to 5564 US dollars / ton, down 0.
93% from the intraday high of 5616 US dollars / ton, and has not fallen below the oscillation finishing platform
for more than a week.
In terms of positions, on December 29, the position of London copper was 355,000 lots, a daily decrease of 1,304 lots, which was a ninth consecutive day of reduction, indicating that long and short positions were actively reduced and exited, and the sentiment of the copper market declined
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index stabilized around 102.
88, near the year's high of 103.
65
.
In addition, China's official manufacturing PMI came in at 51.
4 in December, down from 51.
7 in the previous month but still the second highest level of the year, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 51.
9 in December, up 1% month-on-month and the highest since January 2013, indicating an acceleration
in manufacturing expansion at the end of the year.
In terms of industries, Peru's copper production in November was 210718 tons, up 32.
8% year-on-year, but down 7,967 tons or 3.
64% month-on-month, mainly driven
by new mine commissioning and copper mine expansion.
The cumulative production of copper in Peru from January to November was 2160422 tons, an increase of 642299 tons or 42.
3%
year-on-year.
In terms of market: on January 3, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at a discount of 180 yuan / ton - 80 yuan / ton for the monthly contract, and the trading price of flat water copper was 45570-45770 yuan / ton
.
On the first day of New Year's Eve trading, there was no financial pressure on holders, and the copper discount was significantly narrower than before the holiday, but the intraday high report and low movement showed that it was difficult for the market to recognize the low discount status
for the time being.
The speculative market operation is cautious, and the downstream is also afraid of the 46,000 yuan / ton plate, most of which is mainly based on consumption inventory, and the overall consumption of the market has not seen recovery
.
The Shanghai copper 1703 contract fell back to 45,760 yuan / ton during the day, indicating that its upper rebound resistance is strong, but due to the strong performance of China's manufacturing PMI in December, it is necessary to pay attention to the performance of the external market in the evening, and the copper market operation still needs to be cautious
.
It is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1703 contract can be sold high and low between 45200-46500 yuan, and the stop loss is 500 yuan / ton
each.
