Shanghai copper shock recovery short-term pay attention to the trend of the US dollar

Externally: Asian Lun copper bottomed out slightly, cutting some of the intraday declines, of which 3-month London copper fell slightly by 0.
42% to 5428 US dollars / ton, the intraday trading range was 5444-5381 US dollars / ton, and at the same time fell 9.
9%
from the high of 6025 US dollars / ton.
In terms of positions, on November 15, the position of London copper was 365,000 lots, a sharp decrease of 13,041 lots per day, the first reduction in 11 trading days, indicating that the high long and short actively reduced their positions and
exited.

On the macro front: The Asian dollar index oscillated higher to around 100.
36, near a recent high of 100.
57 set overnight, as expectations of a Fed rate hike in December rose
.
In addition, US industrial output was flat m/m in October, underperforming the expected growth of 0.
2%.

In terms of industry, it is understood that the TC price of Long-term copper concentrate signed by Freeport McMorun to China in 2017 was 92.
5 US dollars / ton, which was lower than previous market expectations
.
SMM believes that the main reason is that the market expects that the growth rate of global copper mine supply will slow down next year, and the domestic copper smelter will increase the production capacity of large
.
In 2016, the TC price of Changxie copper concentrate was 97.
35 US dollars/tonne
.

In terms of market: on November 17, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at a discount of 100 yuan / ton - 30 yuan / ton for the current month's contract, and the trading price of flat water copper was 43460-43820 yuan / ton
.
Merchants' willingness to exchange cash continues, the current copper discount quotation and all the way expand, speculators avoid risk to reduce market operations, downstream on-demand mainly, supply pressure is still large, copper price correction period, market spot risk still exists, most of the market discount pessimistic
.

During the day, the Shanghai copper 1701 contract fell under pressure to 43,670 yuan / ton, and the short-term copper price was confirmed by the retracement, the trend was biased, and the support below it focused on 42,000 yuan / ton
.
However, technically, at present, Shanghai copper is still effectively running above the moving average group, the upward trend is still good, and London copper increased its position to rise, indicating that funds are actively following
.
It is recommended to intervene again at the time of the correction, and the Shanghai copper 1701 contract can be backed by 42,000 yuan above the dip
.