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Today's Shanghai copper main contract 1706 fluctuated in a narrow range around 45900 yuan / ton, with an intraday operating range of 46060-45480 yuan / ton, and closed at 45910 yuan / ton at the end of the day, down 0.
26%
on the day.
However, at present, Shanghai copper is still running below the main moving average group, indicating that short-term downside risks remain.
In terms of term structure, the copper market maintained a positive arrangement of near, low, far high, and the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1705 contract and the 1706 contract remained at 40 yuan / ton
.
External trend: Today's London copper around 5650 US dollars / ton narrow range, of which 3 months London copper slightly rose 0.
33% to 5656 US dollars / ton, but London copper is still running under the main moving average group, short-term decline risk remains
.
In terms of positions, on April 20, the position of London copper was 336,000 lots, a daily decrease of 1,141 lots, last week London copper reduced positions oscillation, and the second half of the week recovered some of the weekly decline, indicating that bears actively reduced their positions on dips
.
On the macro front: the Asian dollar index gapped low and now runs around 99, hitting a new low since November 11, 2016, as expectations of a June rate hike by the Federal Reserve fell, while in the first round of the French presidential election, candidate Emmanuel .
Macron and Marina.
Le Pen took the lead in the vote and successfully entered the second round of the general election, and the voting result was in line with expectations
.
At the same time, the market expects Macron to win the second round of voting, when France will remain in the EU, boosting the euro
.
In terms of industry information, Indonesia has issued an export license for 1.
11 million wet tons of copper concentrate to Freeport Indonesia Branch, which is valid until February next year
Spot: On April 24, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a premium of 20 yuan / ton - 100 yuan / ton for the monthly contract, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 45740-45860 yuan / ton
.
Some imported copper has entered the domestic market, the source of warehouse receipts continues to flow into the market, all of which have impacted the supply of copper at the beginning of the week, coupled with weak consumption at the beginning of the week, the current copper premium has narrowed all the way flat water copper and wet copper began to actively reduce the premium shipment, the premium still has room to be adjusted downward, speculators have few operations, the downstream maintains a state of demand, and the supply pressure has increased
sharply.
As the end of the month approaches, coupled with the increasing supply pressure, the current copper premium state may not be sustainable
.
The Shanghai copper 1706 contract oscillation rose slightly to 45910 yuan / ton during the day, partly boosted by the pressure of the US dollar index, but its upward momentum is still weak, the rebound height is limited, and the operation still needs to be cautious.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1706 contract hold a biased oscillation idea, which can be sold high and low in the range of 45600-47000 yuan, and the stop loss is 400 yuan / ton
each.
