Shanghai copper trend is strong, above 44,000 yuan / ton resistance

In terms of the market, today's domestic spot copper prices rose sharply, Yangtze River nonferrous metal network 1# copper price was reported at 41910 yuan / ton, up 890, premium 90-150; Guangdong spot 1# copper price was 41900 yuan / ton, up 900 yuan; Yangtze River spot 1# copper price 41940 yuan / ton, up 880 yuan, premium 130-liter 150; Shanghai spot 1# copper price was 41920 yuan / ton, flat
.

Holders are willing to raise prices, more reluctant to sell, downstream consumption is general, and some traders are slightly optimistic about the future market
.
Affected by the epidemic, the supply disturbance of overseas concentrate continues to expand, and domestic refined copper inventories continue to deteriorate, which supports copper prices, but the pressure of terminal downstream consumption is still large, and the global epidemic has not yet shown a significant inflection point, and the upward momentum of copper prices may be limited
.

On the macro front, from a macro perspective, the final value of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI in March recorded 44.
5, down 4.
7 percentage points from the previous month; the final value of the UK manufacturing PMI in March was 47.
8, down 3.
9 percentage points from the previous value; and the final value of the ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States recorded 49.
1 in March, 1 percentage point
lower than the previous value 。 Affected by the global spread of the epidemic, the main manufacturing PMI in Europe and the United States fell, but compared with the manufacturing PMI, the service PMI was hit harder, with the Eurozone service PMI falling to 28.
4 in March and the US service PMI falling to 39.
1, both at record
lows.

From the perspective of consumption, the overall operating rate of copper plate and foil enterprises in March was 73.
07%, down 2.
38 percentage points year-on-year, and rebounded sharply by 17.
19 percentage points month-on-month, mainly due to the increase in downstream terminal orders, while demand improved, in March, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 1.
4 million units, reaching 1.
422 million and 1.
43 million units, respectively, an increase of 399.
2% and 361.
4% month-on-month; The year-on-year decrease was 44.
5% and 43.
3%, which was 35.
3 and 35.
8 percentage points
lower than that in February.

From the downstream feedback data, domestic demand recovery is good, and policy-guided stimulation of consumption is expected to be further strengthened; The greater concern is the consumer market of major European and American countries under the continuous spread of the overseas epidemic, and with the recession, it is bound to significantly reduce copper consumption
.

On the whole, copper prices maintained a strong shock pattern last week, Shanghai copper rose for three consecutive weeks, the price returned to above 41,000 yuan / ton, mine supply continued to be affected by the epidemic has become the main force supporting the current copper price, but the overseas epidemic is still spreading, the loss of overseas consumption is a long-term resistance
to copper prices.
Considering that the current domestic macro environment is in the rebound window period after the epidemic control, coupled with the supply contraction, copper prices have ushered in a strong shock stage of upward shift in the short term, and the resistance above 44,000 yuan / ton is greater
.