Shanghai rubber continued weak volatility, dragging down the front-month contract

The opening price of the Nippon 1701 contract is 153.
2 yen/kg, the highest price is 153.
7 yen/kg, the lowest price is 151.
6 yen/kg, and the closing price is 151.
6 yen/kg; The trading volume was 3219 lots, and the position volume was 9887 lots
.

Domestic sales area market
.
14-year state-owned full latex 10000 (-150) in Shanghai; 14-year Yunnan state-owned whole milk 10000 (-100) in Shandong; The tax-free price of state-owned whole milk in Hengshui area for 14 years is 9900 (0) yuan / ton, and the price of private whole milk without tax in 15 years is 10100 yuan / ton (0) yuan / ton; Yunnan 16 years private full latex quotation of 10100 (+50) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period decreased by 1160 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 309630 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai increased by 250 tons, Yunnan decreased by 370 tons, Shandong decreased by 280 tons, Tianjin decreased by 340 tons, and Hainan decreased by 420 tons
.

Holdings of the main contract of Shanghai rubber (1701): the top 20 members have long positions of 68825 (+1334), short positions of 92155 (+5354), and net short positions of 23330
.

The main contract of Shanghai Rubber 1701 continued to be weak and volatile
yesterday.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line fell back to near the 5-day moving average, and the technical indicator MACD red column turned green; On the daily chart, the K line fell back below the 5-day moving average, and the MACD green column continued
.
The volume and position increased
.
Overall, the technical picture is weak
.

Comprehensive analysis, Shanghai rubber continued to be weak
under the drag of near-month contracts.
For the 09 contract, we still maintain the previous view, you can refer to the RMB composite rubber quotation -300~400 or so forecast
.
Due to weather and other reasons, the lack of new rubber storage brought support to the 01 contract, and the 09-01 spread closed at 2075 at night, narrowing the spread
.
09The expectation that 09 may continue to weaken in mid-to-late August has largely materialized
.
In the medium and long term, the view
of weak volatility is maintained.

It is recommended that investors operate between 12,000-13,000 in the upper area of the 01 contract, the recent decline is more affected by the short hedging order, and it is expected to stabilize and strengthen in mid-to-late November, if dragged down by the recent contract to the lower edge of the range price, you can consider establishing long positions
one after another.
Before the delivery of the 09 contract, Shanghai rubber may maintain a near, weak and far strong contract structure, and the spread is expected to repair to around
2000.
The short order on the 1611 contract can continue to be held, the logic is that part of the warehouse receipt of 09 will be moved to the 11 contract, as the last contract of the 16-year-old rubber, the 9-11 spread is expected to be flat, and even 11 may discount 09, and the final price may be near
the 10,000 yuan integer mark.
However, 11 liquidity is limited, investors should pay attention to liquidity risk
.