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Recently, Shanghai rubber has been pulling back continuously, and it has been blocked
near the high of the September rebound.
The macro picture is positive while demand remains weak
.
Recently, the operating rate of domestic tire companies has continued to decline year-on-year, and the inventory of finished products is high, and the New Year's Day and Spring Festival are approaching, and the operating rate of enterprises will remain at a low level
in the next two months.
However, the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that it is necessary to "focus on expanding domestic demand
.
" Priority should be given to the recovery and expansion of consumption"
.
Therefore, we should be confident that the enthusiasm of domestic automobile consumption will increase in 2023 and logistics and transportation will return to normal, and the price of Tianjiao will rise steadily and may be the main trend
in 2023.
On the supply side, the price center of gravity of RMB mixed rubber followed the downward trend of the disk shock, the domestic production areas have entered the suspension of cutting, the profit of concentrated milk has increased during the week, there is a slight diversion impact, the rainfall in the Thai production area during the week affects the release of new rubber, and the trading atmosphere affects the price increase of the next cup of rubber under pressure; Hainan production areas will all stop cutting at the end of this month, and the domestic rubber season will end
.
The price of Thai glue and cup glue is relatively firm, but the pressure on the new rubber market will continue until the first quarter
of next year.
It is expected that Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile pattern
in the near future.
In terms of demand, under the influence of the off-season of demand, the downstream tire industry has seen a significant decline in operation, the performance of the domestic market is average, the pressure of tire inventory has increased, and the shipment performance is less than expected; In terms of stocks, as of December 22, the total stock of natural rubber in Qingdao was 539,400 tons, an increase of 09,300 tons, or 1.
75%,
from last week.
As macro bullishness is digested by the market, the market's confidence in continuing to go long has weakened
.
Under the background of weakening macro driving and empty industrial logic, it is expected that the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2305 contract in the future market is expected to maintain a biased space
.
