Shanghai rubber contract downward recovery It is recommended to wait and see for the time being

News: 1.
General Administration of Customs: China's rubber imports in September 2021 fell 29% year-on-year to 615,000 tons
.
2.
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: In September, China's automobile production and sales increased month-on-month, while year-on-year decreased
.
March and September China's heavy-duty truck sales were about 60,000 units, down 60%
year-on-year.

Market quotation: Shanghai market 19 years state-owned full latex reported 13700 (-450) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 13350 (-100) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 stock spot reported 1795 (+0) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 November cargo reported 1785 (+0) US dollars / ton
.
Qingdao area RMB Thai mix 12650 (+200) yuan / ton, RMB horse mix 12650 (+200) yuan / ton
.
Hainan state-owned glue into the whole dairy plant 12800 (+0) yuan / ton, into the concentrated dairy plant 13200 (+0) yuan / ton
.
The purchase price of glue from dry rubber plant in Yunnan production area refers to 11.
9-12.
7 (0/0) yuan/kg, and the purchase price of glue from concentrated latex plant refers to 12.
6-12.
9 (0/0) yuan/kg
.
On October 13, the anniversary of the death of King Rama IX of Thailand, the Thai Hat Yai Raw Material Market is closed
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber in North China 1502 market price 13900 (+500) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 14700 (+400) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 205900 tons, +560 tons; NR warehouse receipt 27609 tons, + 201 tons
.
Main positions: RU2201 top 20 long positions 85955, -688; short positions 121971, -4871; long and short are reduced together, net space is reduced
.

Summary: In Hainan, due to the heavy rainfall brought by tropical storms and the southwest monsoon, the rainfall in various regions of Thailand will also increase, which will increase the impact on raw material output
.
Due to the impact of epidemic prevention and control and the continued tightening of foreign workers, the delay in shipping schedules from Southeast Asia to China is still serious, and it may still be difficult to significantly increase natural rubber imports in October
.
The Mohan Port in Yunnan production area was temporarily closed due to the impact of the epidemic in Laos, and the entry of foreign raw materials was blocked
.
On the demand side, some factories have recently issued price increase notices to stimulate terminal replenishment and promote the destocking of finished tire factories, but due to factors such as limited electricity, tire starts are still at a relatively low level
.
On the plate, the RU2201 contract rebounded downward, focusing on the support around 14300 in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for
the time being.