Shanghai rubber high opening oscillation short-term focus on pressure around 13500

News: 1.
Passenger car association: Retail sales of passenger cars in June fell 8%
year-on-year.
2.
In the first half of 2021, Indonesia's rubber exports increased year-on-year, while exports to China declined
.
3.
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: Cumulative vehicle sales from January to June are expected to increase by 24.
8% y/y to 12.
801 million units
.

Market quotation: Shanghai market 19-year state-owned full latex reported 12950 (+0) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 12700 (-50) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 stock spot reported 1675 (+10) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 August cargo reported 1675 (+10) US dollars / ton
.
Qingdao area RMB Thai mix 12100 (+0) yuan / ton, RMB horse mix 12000 (+0) yuan / ton
.
Hainan state-owned glue into the whole dairy plant 12100 (+0) yuan / ton, into the concentrated milk plant 11900 (+0) yuan / ton
.
The purchase price of glue from dry rubber factory in Yunnan production area refers to 12.
0-12.
3 (+0.
1/+0) yuan/kg, and the purchase price of glue in concentrated dairy plant refers to 12.
0-12.
3 (+0/+0) yuan/kg
.
Thailand Hat Yai raw material market field glue 43 (+0.
5) baht/kg; Cup glue 42.
55 (-0.
15) baht/kg
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 in North China Market price 12800 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 12500 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 174750 tons, +0 tons; NR warehouse receipts 52,749 tons, -40 tons
.

Main positions: RU2109 top 20 long positions 108660, - 2492; short positions 153293, - 3016; long and short are reduced together, net short is reduced
.

Summary: At present, it is in the global seasonal production increase cycle of tianjiao, the weather in the main production areas is normal, and the raw materials continue to increase, but the epidemic in Thailand has caused the market to worry about
foreign workers.
The output of raw materials in Hainan production area is high, and the glue into the thick dairy plant is discounted into the price of the full latex factory, which is conducive to the increase of the amount of full latex; The cutting rate in Yunnan production area continued to increase, and the gum production of gum trees was basically normal, and rapid increase was expected
.
The public health incident in Ruili, Yunnan Province, may tighten the border, and alternative planting indicators may continue to be delayed
.
In terms of inventory, the latest data showed that stocks in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone were higher, while stocks outside the zone fell
slightly.
The recent decline in inventories has slowed
after a sustained decline in upfront inventories.
On the demand side, weak domestic and foreign sales, high inventories of finished products in factories, coupled with environmental factors, the operating rate of domestic tire factories fell sharply last week, and the recent digestion of inventory is still the mainstay, and it is expected that the start is still at a low level
.
On the market, the RU2109 contract reduced its position and closed higher, focusing on the pressure around 13500 in the short term, and it is recommended to trade
in the 13175-13500 range.