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Recently, Shanghai rubber has risen for four consecutive trading days, and all contracts have hit new highs since the beginning of April, and with the volume of transactions, breaking through the finishing pattern has begun to appear
.
Although domestic automobile production and sales have rebounded for three consecutive months, tire exports have not returned to normal, and high temperature weather has made rubber product production in the off-season
.
In addition, the inventory of imported tianjiao has been at a historically high level for a long time, and the new rubber has been launched one after another to increase the supply pressure
.
Macro data show that the economic situation has improved and boosted market sentiment, but the sharp volatility of the stock market has affected investors' risk appetite
.
There is a seasonal law
in the fluctuation of Shanghai rubber prices.
Domestic tianjiao production is generally stopped from the end of the year to the first quarter of the next year, and there is tianjiao production
at other times.
The main production area of tianjiao is in Southeast Asian countries, and most of them stop cutting
in the first or second quarter.
Domestic rubber cutting has been delayed this year, and global supply has been reduced
due to the spread of the new crown epidemic.
However, in terms of spot stocks of celestial rubber, the supply is quite sufficient
.
At present, the main factor affecting the price of Shanghai rubber futures lies in demand
.
In the past, high summer high temperature was mostly the off-season for the production of rubber products, and this year, coupled with the impact of the decline in global demand (except for rubber products for medical protection), the consumption situation is less optimistic, but it is expected to improve
in the later stage.
In the long run, Shanghai rubber in June and July is mostly mixed, and the possibility of rising in August is higher, especially since 2016.
Therefore, the recent rise in rubber prices is not unrelated to the early entry of funds into the market
.
So far, Shanghai rubber has risen for four consecutive trading days, and after a maximum of five consecutive days of higher
prices in the rebound trend since April.
Moreover, the current rubber price is facing pressure on the upper track of the channel, and whether it can effectively break through the finishing pattern has reached a critical period
.
Although the outlook for supply and demand is relatively optimistic, the current supply pressure is also more prominent, and the upward momentum of rubber prices mainly comes from the promotion
of funds.
Technically, if the breakout trend is effective, then the future target of the main 2009 contract may be around 12,000 yuan; The target of the subsequent main 2101 contract may be around
13000.
