Shanghai rubber oscillation is strong, near weak and far strong

The opening price of the Nippon 1701 contract is 152.
4 yen/kg, the highest price is 156 yen/kg, the lowest price is 152 yen/kg, and the closing price is 155.
6 yen/kg; The trading volume was 5061 lots, and the position volume was 8983 lots
.

Domestic sales area market
.
14-year state-owned full latex 10050 (+50) in Shanghai; 14 years Yunnan state-owned whole milk 10050 (+50) in Shandong; The 14-year state-owned whole milk tax-free price in Hengshui area is 10,000 (+100) yuan/ton, and the 15-year private whole milk tax-free price is 10,200 yuan/ton (+100) yuan/ton; Yunnan's 16-year private full latex quotation was 10100 (0) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period decreased by 2140 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the last period was reported at 307490 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai decreased by 380 tons, Yunnan decreased by 260 tons, Shandong decreased by 430 tons, Tianjin decreased by 230 tons, and Hainan decreased by 840 tons
.

The main contract of Shanghai rubber 1701 was volatile and strengthened
yesterday.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line rose above the 5-day moving average, the pressure of the 60-day moving average above was greater, and the technical indicator MACD red column continued; On the daily chart, the K line rises above the 5-day moving average, and the MACD green bar narrows
.
The volume of trading volume and position is reduced
.
Overall, the technical picture shows signs
of improvement.

Holdings of the main contract of Shanghai rubber (1701): the top 20 members have long positions of 66916 (-1675), short positions of 85684 (-6471), and net short positions of 18768
.

Comprehensive analysis, Shanghai rubber oscillation is strong
.
For the 09 contract, we still maintain the previous view, you can refer to the RMB composite rubber quotation -300~400 or so forecast
.
Due to weather and other reasons, the lack of new rubber storage brought support to the 01 contract, and the 09-01 spread closed at 2120 as of the night session, and the spread widened
slightly.
In the medium and long term, the view
of weak volatility is maintained.

It is recommended that investors operate between 12000-13000 in the upper area of the 01 contract, the recent decline is more affected by the short hedging order, if dragged down by the recent contract to the lower edge of the range price can consider successively establishing long positions, low long positions can continue to hold
.
Before the delivery of the 09 contract, Shanghai rubber may maintain a near, weak and far strong contract structure, and the spread is expected to repair to around
2000.
The short order on the 1611 contract can continue to be held, and the high can be considered for shorting
.
However, 11 liquidity is limited, investors should pay attention to liquidity risk
.