Shanghai rubber reduces its position and increases the futures price has limited room for decline

News: 1.
ANRPC: Thailand's tianjiao production surged by 15.
7% in the first 10 months, with a shortfall of about 130,000 tons
for the whole year.
2.
Tariff adjustment in 2019: The provisional tax rate
will be implemented for imported tianjiao.

In terms of spot: the 17-year quotation of state-owned whole milk (Yunxiang) in the Shanghai market is 10700 (+200) yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L quotation 10450 (+150) yuan / ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco tablets 12100 (+200) yuan / ton; Yunnan 17 years full latex 10350 (+50) yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 40.
7 (+0.
48) baht/kg; Tai San Tobacco Tablets 44.
2 (+1.
57) THB/kg; field glue 38.
5 (-0.
5) baht/kg; Cup gum 34 (0) baht/kg
.

Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price in East China 11650 (0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 11750 (0) yuan / ton
.
On December 26, the enthusiasm of the Qingdao Free Trade Zone market offer was lowered, the enthusiasm for inquiry was acceptable, the transaction price of US dollar rubber fell steadily, and the transaction price of RMB rubber remained stable
.

Although the domestic natural rubber production areas have entered a period of reduction as a whole, the main producing areas of Southeast Asian rubber have entered the peak season of rubber tapping, and this year's global production of sky rubber will still maintain a growth momentum, and the future supply pressure is still large
.

Downstream, the seasonal sales of tire factories tend to be better, and the increase in export tax rebates of tire products is beneficial to the tire industry, but the sales of domestic heavy trucks are not optimistic
.
However, at present, the price of Shanghai rubber is close to the domestic rubber tapping cost line, and the futures price has limited
room for decline.
The short-term recommendation of the Shanghai rubber 1905 contract is to trade
in the range of 10900-11500.