Shanghai rubber shock finishing The overall inventory declined

Night trading: Shanghai rubber RU1901 contract opened at 12465 yuan / ton, the highest price was 12525 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 12400 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 12445 yuan / ton; Down 20 yuan / ton, down 0.
16%.

The opening price of the Nippon 1901 contract is 171.
8 yen/kg, the highest price is 173.
8 yen/kg, the lowest price is 170.
5 yen/kg, and the closing price is 173.
1 yen/kg; The trading volume was 3838 lots, and the position volume was 12980 lots
.

Domestic sales area market quotation: Shanghai market, Yunnan 16 years full latex quotation 10400 (+100/0) yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 16 years full latex quotation -(-) yuan/ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 16-year whole milk quotation 10600 (0) yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 17 years full latex quotation 10600 (0) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period decreased by 650 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 499270 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai decreased by 260 tons, Yunnan decreased by 190 tons, Shandong Ping, Tianjin Ping, Hainan decreased by 200 tons
.

As of August 16, 2018, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell slightly by about 0.
8% to 204,600 tons
.
Although the overall stock of rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone declined, there were slight differences in individual varieties: the stock of styrene-butadiene rubber decreased slightly, and the stock of tobacco flake rubber increased
slightly.
Specific varieties are 77,200 tons of natural rubber, 123,700 tons of synthetic rubber, and 03,700 tons
of compound rubber.

The Shanghai rubber RU1901 contract was volatile on Thursday, and the night session continued
.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line fell back below the short-term moving average, and the technical indicator MACD red bar continued; On the daily chart, the K-line is still in the early oscillation range, and the technical indicator MACD red bar continues
.
Trading volume increased, positions declined, and the technical picture was neutral
.
The top 20 members held positions, long 81687 (-2545), short 117851 (+1208), net short 36164 lots
.

【Viewpoint and operation suggestions】

January and July ANRPC statistics show that in the first seven months of this year, global natural rubber production increased by 3.
7% year-on-year to 7.
372 million tons, and consumption increased by 5.
2% year-on-year to 8.
158 million tons
.

Due to the impact of natural disasters such as bad weather in July and August, the output of some major producing countries decreased to varying degrees from January to July, among which Vietnam, Malaysia, India and Sri Lanka decreased by 17.
6%, 16.
5%, 8.
5% and 10.
3% respectively year-on-year
.
Thailand, China and Cambodia increased by 10%, 9.
2% and 15.
7%
respectively year-on-year.

Affected by the increase in tire tariffs in the US trade war, China's consumption of tianjiao in the first seven months increased by 2.
8%
year-on-year.
But India surged 12.
2 percent and Thailand surged 35.
8 percent
over the same period.

As of July, the export volume of member countries' tianjiao fell 7.
9% year-on-year to 5.
149 million tons
.
Among them, Thailand fell the most, reaching 18%, while Indonesia and Malaysia maintained a decline of about
3.
3%.
Vietnam grew by 7.
9%.

According to ANRPC estimates, this year's global production of tianjiao increased by 5.
2% to 14.
04 million tons, and the consumption of tianjiao increased by 5.
7% to 14.
136 million tons, with a shortfall of nearly 100,000 tons
in the whole day.

2.
At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday (August 29), the US Department of Commerce released data showing that the annualized quarterly rate of US real GDP in the second quarter was revised to 4.
2%, higher than the expected 4%.

This growth rate is slightly up from the previously announced preliminary figure of 4.
1%, the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2014
.

After the release of the data, the dollar index fluctuated in a narrow range, with little overall change, currently 0.
18% at 94.
80; Spot gold edged lower in the short term, touching as low as $1202.
47 an ounce and now trading at $1203.
25 an ounce
.

As of the close of the night trading 09-01 price spread closed at 1925 yuan / ton, the plate premium mixed spot 1745-1845 yuan / ton
.
As of August 16, 2018, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell slightly by about 0.
8%.

Recently, due to the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the US dollar and the RMB, there are certain exchange risks in imports and exports, and the introduction of "counter-cyclical factors" in China, and the depreciation of the RMB has been repaired
.
Exchange inventories remained high, and high inventories remained a constraint
to the rise in Shanghai rubber prices.
The operating rate of domestic tire companies has fallen, entering a relatively off-season this year, and the industry is pessimistic
about the downstream car market.
The uncertainty of the levy list of 200 billion products exported to the United States remains, the pace of destocking in the domestic market is slow, the increase in synthetic rubber is obvious, and the ANRPC shows that the supply of natural rubber from January to July is 786,000 tons (this data should not contain mixing), the phenological conditions affect the amount of rubber produced in Indonesia and India, and the long and short for the future supply and demand pattern diverges or increases
.
Intraday or mainly consolidation
.