Shanghai rubber strengthened slightly, and the shock was mainly strong

The opening price of the Nippon 1903 contract is 169.
5 yen/kg, the highest price is 170.
4 yen/kg, the lowest price is 168.
7 yen/kg, and the closing price is 169.
4 yen/kg; The trading volume was 1788 lots, and the position volume was 10243 lots
.
As of October 5, the close was up 0.
83%
from the close on September 28.

Domestic sales area market quotation: Shanghai market, Yunnan 17 years full latex quotation 10900/11000 (-) yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 17 years full latex quotation -(-) yuan/ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 16-year whole milk tax quotation 11100/11200 (-100/-100) yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 18 years full latex quotation 11100/11200 (0/0) yuan / ton
.
(Market quotations are rare, except for the Yunnan market for September 29, the rest are quoted on the 28th)

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period increased by 1830 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 520810 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai increased by 480 tons, Yunnan decreased by 20 tons, Shandong increased by 1230 tons, Tianjin increased by 140 tons, and Hainan Ping
.

As of September 30, 2018, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell by 23%.

Preliminary statistics show that the inventory of all rubber varieties has declined
across the board.

The last trading day before the holiday of the Shanghai rubber RU1901 contract fluctuated in a narrow range, with no night trading
.
From the 60-minute candlestick chart, the K-line rose above the short-term moving average, and the technical indicator MACD green bar narrowed; On the daily chart, the K-line found support near the 60-day moving average, and the technical indicator MACD red bar continued
.
Trading volume and position volume declined, and the technical picture was neutral
.
The top 20 members held positions, long 74260 (-3977), short 107743 (-4344), net short 33483 lots
.

【Viewpoint and operation suggestions】

1.
In the first eight months, global tianjiao production increased by 1.
3% year-on-year to 8.
51 million tons
.
As of August, while Thailand's production of Tianjiao increased by 5.
4% year-on-year to 2.
783 million tons, Indonesia and China also increased by 5.
8% and 4.
5% respectively
.
However, affected by heavy rain, floods and other weather, the output of tianjiao in India, Malaysia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka decreased by 8.
9%, 22.
7%, 18.
1% and 9.
3% respectively year-on-year
.

From January to August, global consumption of tianjiao increased by 5.
5% year-on-year to 9.
342 million tons
.
Among them, China increased by 3.
1% year-on-year to 3.
702 million tons
.

In terms of exports, the export of tianjiao in the main producing countries fell by 10.
6% year-on-year to 5.
881 million tons, of which Thailand fell by 23.
9%, Indonesia and Malaysia both fell by 3.
6%.

It is estimated that the global production of tianjiao will be 13.
917 million tons, down 123,000 tons
from the previous month's figure.
Global consumption is expected to be 14.
037 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.
3%.

The gap between supply and demand of tianjiao that year was 120,000 tons
.

2.
In order to cope with the increase in business costs, Bridgestone decided to raise the price of Dayton brand tires sold in the United States and Canada by 10%.

This is the second price
increase following a 3.
5% price increase for Bridgestone and Vanstone brand passenger car and light truck tires sold in the U.
S.
and a 4% price increase for Vallstone agricultural tires from October 1.

3.
As of September 30, 2018, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell by 23%.

Preliminary statistics show that the inventory of all rubber varieties has declined
across the board.
Tire factories are more active in stocking before the holiday, mainly cheap old goods, and the situation in and out of the warehouse has improved
.
The specific data remains to be
tracked.

As of the close of the night trading at 11-01, the spread closed at 1535 yuan / ton, and the mixed spot of premium water on the plate was 1560-1660 yuan / ton
.
The stock on the exchange exceeded 520,000 tons, the inventory in the bonded area fell sharply before the holiday, the inventory outside the area fell back, tire companies actively stocked up before the holiday, the situation of outbound warehouses outside the region improved, and the operating rate is expected to continue to strengthen
after the holiday.
During the domestic holiday, Hong Kong stocks fell sharply, commodities rose, Japanese rubber rose slightly, and the offshore yuan fell below the key level of 6.
9 to 1 US dollar, returning to the downtrend
.
Southeast Asia's currency depreciation intensified
.
We expect that Shanghai rubber may strengthen slightly after the holiday, with strong fluctuations in the range of 12200-12800 yuan / ton
.