Shanghai rubber under pressure to fall, short-term recommendations are to treat with a bearish idea

News: 1.
According to Longzhong Information, the construction of semi-steel tires started 57.
67% last week, down 8.
88% month-on-month and 8.
83% year-on-year; Last week, all steel tires started 46.
47%, down 23.
22% month-on-month and 20.
53%
year-on-year.
2.
ANRPC: Global natural rubber production in the first five months of 2019 decreased by 6.
5%
year-on-year.
3, Trump: As long as tariffs are imposed on vehicles, the EU will agree to all conditions
.

Market quotation: the quotation of 17-year state-owned whole milk (Yunxiang) in the Shanghai market is 10300 (-150) yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L quotation 10750 (-150) yuan / ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco flakes 12900 (-150) yuan/ton; Yunnan 18 years full latex 10450 (-150) yuan / ton
.
The purchase price of natural rubber fresh glue and dry rubber of Hainan State-owned Rubber Processing Plant is 9700 yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 39.
83 (-0.
1) baht/kg; Tai San tobacco tablets 42.
29 (-0.
3) baht/kg; field glue 39.
4 (+0) baht/kg; Cup gum 32.
5 (+0) baht/kg
.
SMR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1320 (-5) US dollars / ton; SIR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1325 (+0) US dollars / ton; STR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1330 (-5) US dollars / ton
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price in East China 10600 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 10700 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 417960 tons, +570 tons; NR warehouse receipt 0 tons
.
Main positions: RU2001 top 20 long positions 68738, -936; short positions 102219, +1526
.
Reduce more and increase the short, and increase the headroom
.

Summary: At present, domestic and foreign production areas are in the rubber tapping period, and the supply is gradually increasing
.
Vietnam's exports to China have increased significantly, and inventories will still recover
as imports continue to arrive.
At the same time, the September contract is about to enter the delivery month, and the pressure of warehouse receipts will still suppress
the futures price.
On the demand side, after a week of repair in Dongying and Weifang areas, manufacturers are expected to recover from construction, but at present, domestic tire consumption is in the off-season, and demand still has no bright
spots.
Overall, the global natural rubber market is still facing a fundamental pattern
of oversupply.
Technically, the RU2001 contract fell under pressure, and the short-term recommendation was to treat it with a bearish idea, focusing on the support near the previous low; NR2002 contract reduced positions to close lower, short-term focus on support around 9700, it is recommended to trade
in the 9800-10000 range.