Shanghai rubber up and down drive weakened range shock idea treated

In terms of supply, the phenological conditions are good this year, and it is expected that the Yunnan region will start cutting
on March 20, about 10 days earlier than in previous years.
The market revised some domestic supply expectations, which suppressed
the market to a certain extent.
Raw material prices in Thailand remained high, and raw material prices supported
the plate.

On the demand side, the expectation of continuous improvement continues, and the operating rate of tire companies quickly recovers to above 70%, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact
of environmental protection policies on the start of downstream tire companies.
According to Qingdao's environmental protection policy, as long as the yellow warning is reached, tire and rubber companies will stop part of production, and achieve pollutant emission reduction of more than 50%; Above the orange warning, all production
will be stopped.

In terms of news, the latest report released by ANRPC (Alliance of Major Producing Countries) said that global production of tianjiao in February 2021 fell by 12.
4% compared with February 2020, and global tianjiao consumption in February is expected to increase by 47.
5% to 1.
103 million tons
.
Inventory in many places in China shows a trend
of destocking.
In terms of synthetic rubber, crude oil is strong, butadiene rebounds from the low, and butylbenzene is strong
.

The data shows that the tire production data in 2021 performed eye-catchingly, with 56.
9 million production data in January alone, an increase of nearly 21 million pieces or 58% compared with the January 2020 production data; Compared with January 2019, it increased by more than 9.
6 million items, an increase of 20%.

The output data in February was 37.
19 million, an increase of 19.
73 million from February 2020, and the increase has doubled; An increase of 3.
91 million from February 2019, an increase of 12%.

The production data in 2021 was strong, forming a new high level
in the same period of nearly three years.
In February, heavy goods vehicle sales were 118,000 units, down 35.
7% m/m and up 214.
9% y/y.
From January to February, sales of heavy goods vehicles reached 301,000 units, up 95.
5%
y/y.

On the whole, upstream resource products have digested many favorable expectations in the previous round of rapid rise, superimposed on the ebb of funds, most commodities have entered a consolidation period, short-term Shanghai rubber up and down drive weakened, into the shock market, range thinking treatment
.