Short profit exit Pressure remains above copper prices

In terms of external trading, London copper jumped high at 6350 US dollars / ton, after a short consolidation, the shock downward through the daily moving average, and then a stepped downward trend, fell back to below the 6300 US dollars / ton mark in the afternoon, to the low of the day 6259 US dollars / ton, and then rose slightly, as of 17:30, London copper reported 6299.
5 US dollars / ton
.

In terms of the market, the rebound of Shanghai copper was blocked by 50,000 yuan / ton, and the continuous increase in the supply of goods made the willingness of holders to dump goods for cash and further expand
.
Morning market good copper quotation discount 40 ~ discount 30 yuan / ton, flat water copper quotation discount 70 yuan / ton, the overall transaction is weak, good copper leading down to discount about 60 yuan / ton, flat water copper quotation discount 90 ~ discount 80 yuan / ton, wet copper down to discount 140 yuan / ton, downstream consumption is still weak, very little into the market, after the end of the long order zero single market transaction is weak and difficult to raise, oversupply is obvious, the weekend is coming, the dumper has increased greatly, the willingness to trade speculation is also low, the pace of discount expansion is accelerating, If the discount can be fully expanded to more than 100 yuan, it may be able to attract some speculators to enter the market
.
In the afternoon, the market fell slightly, imported copper continued to increase, and the willingness of cargo holders to ship was strong, and the willingness of cargo holders to expand their discount after the discount was expanded to 100 yuan, but the transaction remained light
.

On the macro front, this year's trade war may be an important factor throughout the year, the trade war between the United States and countries continues to escalate, copper as a large variety with strong macro attributes, theoretically speaking, in the non-ferrous plate is the most
negatively affected.
This year, the Fed's interest rate hike expectations have risen from three to four, and since the fourth quarter of 2017, the fundamental performance of the United States has been generally stronger than that of Europe, and the dollar index is likely to continue to strengthen this year, and the dollar interest rate and exchange rate have both risen to put pressure on base metals
.

Fundamentals, copper negotiations have been smooth this year, and mining companies have tried to avoid losses caused by strikes; This year's overall supply of refined copper is sufficient, destocking efforts are slow, domestic smelting capacity is mainly concentrated in the second half of the year, refined copper output will continue to accelerate in the second half of the year, throughout the year, refined copper will be in a state
of excess.
Combined with macro and fundamental factors, copper prices in the third quarter may run weakly, and it is difficult to have a big improvement
.