Short-term fundamentals tend to weaken or limit the upside of aluminum prices

On the supply side, due to the dual control of energy consumption and the impact of the Beijing Winter Olympics, the market has been expecting the electrolytic aluminum industry to limit production, but there is no sign of actual production reduction from the actual operating capacity, and it is expected to remain stable
during the year.

On the demand side, near the end of the year, electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to go to storage, the reason is partly because of the fear of the impact of the cancellation of aluminum export tax rebates, large and medium-sized aluminum factories around the country generally appear "rush to export" situation, but from the aluminum plate and foil, aluminum rod, aluminum rod and other demand, near the end of the year, most aluminum companies and dealers on this year's orders to close the work, return funds, expected consumption improvement space is not much
.

On the cost side, some areas of alumina showed signs of actual production cuts, and coal prices began to stabilize, all of which supported aluminum prices
.

The domestic Spring Festival off-season will come, the downstream has been suspended for holidays, aluminum rods, aluminum rod processing fees have fallen rapidly and spot discounts continue to widen, follow-up consumption may have the worry of weakening, in the case of no new production restrictions on the domestic supply side, short-term domestic fundamentals tend to weaken, or will limit the space
for price increases.