Short-term technical pullback Shanghai rubber medium-term rally continued

Shanghai rubber futures rushed back down, Shanghai rubber main contract RU1701 once rushed up to 13800 points in early trading, but then weakly lower, falling below the 10-day moving average support in overnight trading; The Nippon Rubber Index continued to move
sideways.
As of September 29, the inventory of Tianjiao futures was 291,300 tons, an increase of 6,850 tons
from the previous trading day.

In terms of news, the Vietnamese government said on Thursday that Vietnam's rubber exports from January to September 2016 were about 858,000 tons, an increase of 15.
3%
year-on-year.
On the whole, it is difficult to fundamentally change the pattern of global oversupply and demand of tianjiao, and the overall Shanghai rubber will still operate in the bottom area
in 2016.

As the economic and legal difficulties of Hanjin Shipping, the world's seventh-largest shipping company and South Korea's largest shipping company, have stranded $14 billion worth of cargo at sea, cargo owners are trying to get their goods back for delivery to their customers
.
Since the company filed for bankruptcy protection in South Korea last week, dozens of its ships carrying more than 500,000 containers have been denied port calls around the world, and 43 cargo ships have been denied assurances that they will be allowed to unload their cargo on their way to their intended
destinations.
Another 39 ships circled or anchored outside the port, and eight were seized by creditors
.
The market believes that Hanjin Shipping's bankruptcy filing will have an unpredictable hindrance to rubber supply and transportation, resulting in an unexpected reduction in supply in sales areas and pushing up rubber prices
.

In terms of stocks, the inventory of imported rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was more than 103,500 tons on September 14, a sharp decrease of more than 13,400 tons from more than 116,900 tons on August 31, and a sharp decrease of more than 174,600 tons from more than 278,100 tons on February 16, of which the inventory of tiandao rubber was more than 65,100 tons on September 14, a sharp decrease of more than 10,600 tons from more than 75,700 tons on August 31, and a sharp decrease of more than 169,100 tons from more than 234,200 tons
on February 16 。 This shows that the inventory of domestic imported rubber has shrunk significantly, and the consumption of imported rubber has gradually stabilized from relative weakness, which has a strong positive boost
effect on the supply and demand relationship of imported rubber.

In the short term, the peak consumption season has arrived, and the support of the demand side has become stronger; The short-term import shipping schedule is tight, freight rates are rising, and spot inventories hit a five-year bottom, resulting in a phased tension on the supply side and favorable fundamentals for the market; However, the National Day long holiday is coming, and the follow-up supply also shows signs of recovery, short-term Shanghai rubber may have shock adjustment, control the risk rate, and it is appropriate
to reduce the shareholding.